Ukuhlaziywa Komthelela Kwesimemezelo Sentela sikaMongameli Trump sika-April 2025. Ukubuka kwe-AI.

Isingeniso kanye nesendlalelo

Ngomhla zi-3 kuMbasa, 2025, uMongameli u-Donald J. Trump wembula isethi eshaqisayo yentela yokungenisa kwamanye amazwe njengengxenye yenqubomgomo yakhe yezohwebo “evumelanayo” ehloselwe ukunciphisa ukushoda kwezohwebo kanye nokuthuthukisa imboni yasekhaya. Lezi zinyathelo zihlanganisa intela egcwele engu - 10 % kukho konke ukungenisa e - United States , kuhlanganiswe nezintela zezwe eziphakeme kakhulu ( Top News | KGFM-FM ) emazweni asebenzisa imali eyinsalela yohwebo ne-US. Empeleni, lokhu kusho ukuthi cishe bonke abalingani bokuhweba base-US bayathinteka . Isibonelo, ukuthengiswa okuvela e-China manje kubhekene nentela engu-34% , i-European Union ibhekene no-20% , i-Japan 24% , ne-Taiwan 32% , phakathi kwabanye. UMongameli uTrump uzithethelele lezi zindleko ngokumemezela isimo esiphuthumayo sezomnotho kuzwelonke ngaphansi kwe-International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), ecaphuna amashumi eminyaka okungalingani kwezohwebo athi "kuvimbele" ukwenziwa kweMelika. Izintela zaqala ukusebenza ekuqaleni kuka-April 2025, zilandelwa amanani aphezulu “okushintshana” ngo-April 9) futhi zizoqhubeka zisebenza kuze kube yilapho abaphathi bebona ukuthi abalingani bokuhweba bakwamanye amazwe babhekane nalokho abakubheka njengezinqubo zokuhweba ezingalungile. Idlanzana lemikhiqizo ebalulekile liyakhululwa – ikakhulukazi ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe okuhlobene nokuvikela kanye nezinto ezingavuthiwe ezingakhiqizwa e-US (njengamaminerali athile, izinsiza zamandla, amakhemisi, ama-semiconductors, izingodo, nezinye izinsimbi esezivele zimbozwe ngamatherifu angaphambili).

Lesi simemezelo, esichazwe uTrump ngokuthi "Usuku Lwenkululeko" embonini yase-US , simele ukukhuphuka okungaphezulu kakhulu kwezindleko zehlandla lakhe lokuqala. Empeleni yakha udonga olusha lwentela yomhlaba wonke ezungeze i-United States, oluthinta cishe yonke imikhakha namazwe ahilelekile ekuhwebeni ne-US Ukuhlaziya okulandelayo kuhlola imithelela elindelekile yalezi zindleko eminyakeni emibili ezayo (2025–2027) emnothweni womhlaba kanye nezimakethe zase-US. Sicabangela umbono wezomnotho omkhulu, imiphumela eqondene nemboni ethile, ukuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, izimpendulo zamazwe ngamazwe kanye nemiphumela yezepolotiki, imithelela yezabasebenzi nabathengi, imithelela yokutshala izimali, nokuthi lezi zinyathelo zingena kanjani kumongo womlando wenqubomgomo yohwebo. Konke ukuhlola kusekelwe emithonjeni ethembekile, esesikhathini samanje kanye nemininingwane yezomnotho etholakala ngemva kwesimemezelo sika-April 2025.

Isifinyezo Semali Emisiwe Emenyezelwe

I-Scope and Scale: Umnyombo wohlelo olusha lwentela intela yokungenisa engu-10% esetshenziswa emhlabeni wonke kuwo wonke amazwe athekelisa e-United States. Phezu kwalokhu ( Iphepha Leqiniso: UMongameli uDonald J. Trump Umemezela Isimo Esiphuthumayo Sikazwelonke Ukukhulisa Umkhawulo Wethu Wokuncintisana, Ukuvikela Ubukhosi Bethu, Futhi Ukuqinisa Ukuphepha Kwethu Kuzwelonke Nomnotho - I-White House ) abaphathi bafake inhlawulo yentela engeziwe emazweni amaningi ngokulingana nesikweletu sohwebo sase-US ngalinye. Emazwini kaMongameli uTrump, umgomo uwukuqinisekisa “ukubuyisana” ngokukhokhisa abathumeli bangaphandle izimali ezihambisana nokuthi bathengisa kakhulu kangakanani e-US kunalokho abakuthengayo. Empeleni, i-White House ibale izilinganiso zentela ezihloselwe ukukhulisa imali engenayo ecishe ilingane nokungalingani ngakunye kokuhweba kwamazwe amabili, yase yehlisa lezo zilinganiso ngohhafu njengesenzo sokuyekelela okucatshangwayo . Ngisho nasengxenyeni yezinga lethiyori “lokuhwebelana”, amanani entengo avelayo makhulu ngokwezindinganiso zomlando. Izici ezibalulekile zephakheji ye-tariff zifaka:

• 10% Isisekelo Sentela kukho Konke Okungeniswayo: Kusukela ngomhlaka-5 Ephreli 2025, zonke izimpahla ezingenisiwe e-US zenza umsebenzi ongu-10%. Lesi sisekelo sisebenza kuwo wonke amazwe ngaphandle kwalapho sithathelwe indawo izinga eliphezulu eliqondene nezwe elithile. Ngokusho kwe-White House, i-US sekunesikhathi eside inenani eliphansi lentela eliphakathi nendawo (cishe intela ye-MFN engu-2.5–3.3%) kuyilapho ozakwethu abaningi benezintela eziphakeme. I-10% yentela yonkana ihloselwe ukusetha kabusha le bhalansi futhi kungenise imali.

• Izinkokhelo Ezengeziwe “Ezibuyiselayo” ( intela ka-Trump yangomhla zi-2 kuMbasa ingase ikhubaze umnotho osathuthuka | PIIE ): Kusukela ngomhlaka-9 Ephreli 2025, i-US yafaka inhlawulo eyengeziwe ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe evela emazweni lapho isebenzisa khona ukushoda okukhulu kwezohwebo. Esimemezelweni sikaTrump, i-China yiyona ehamba phambili ekuhlosweni -34% (isisekelo esingu-10% + no-24% owengeziwe). I-EU iyonke ibhekene no-20% , Japan 24% , Taiwan 32% , kanye nezinye izizwe eziningi zishaywa ngamanani aphakeme ku-15-30%+ ububanzi. Amanye amazwe asathuthuka ashayeke kanzima: ngokwesibonelo, iVietnam ibhekene nentela engama-46% ekuthumeleni kwayo e-US, ngaphezu kwalokho okungasho “ukubuyisana” ngokujwayelekile. Eqinisweni, osomnotho bayaqaphela ukuthi lezi zindleko azibonisi amanani angaphandle (okuvame ukuba ngaphansi kakhulu); abalwa kwabakushodayo e-US, hhayi emithendelekweni yokungenisa kwamanye amazwe. Sekukonke, cishe isigidintathu esingu-$1 ekuthengisweni kwempahla e-US manje singaphansi kwezintela eziphakeme kakhulu, ezifinyelela kumgoqo wokuvikela ongakaze ubonwe.

• Imikhiqizo Engabaliwe: Abaphathi baqophe ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe emalini emisha, ngenxa yokuphepha kwezwe noma izizathu ezingokoqobo. Ngokusho kwephepha leqiniso le-White House, izimpahla esezingaphansi kwezindleko ezihlukene (njengensimbi ne-aluminium, nezimoto nezingxenye zezimoto ngaphansi kwezenzo zangaphambili zeSigaba 232) azifakiwe ezindlekweni “ezivumelanayo”. Ngokufanayo, izinto ezibalulekile i-US engakwazi ukuzithola ngaphakathi - imikhiqizo yamandla (uwoyela, igesi) kanye namaminerali athile (isb. izakhi zomhlaba ezingavamile) - zikhululekile. Ngokuphawulekayo, imithi, ama-semiconductors, kanye nempahla yezokwelapha nayo ayifakiwe ukugwema ukubeka engcupheni izimboni zezempilo nezobuchwepheshe. Lokhu kushiyelwa kuvuma ukuthi amanye amaketango okunikezela abaluleke kakhulu noma awanakushintshwa ukuze aphazamiseke ngokushesha. Noma kunjalo, isilinganiso sentela sase-US sizonyuka sisuka cishe ku-2.5% ngonyaka odlule siye cishe ku-22% manje uma silinganiswa ngevelu yokungenisa - izinga lokuvikela elingakaze libonwe kusukela ekuqaleni kwawo-1930.

• Izenzo Zentela Ezihlobene: Isimemezelo sangomhla zi-3 kuMbasa safika ngemva kokunye umnyakazo wentela ongaphambili ngo-2025, obumba udonga oluphelele lwezohwebo. NgoMashi 2025, abaphathi babeka amanani angama-25% ezinsizeni zensimbi ne-aluminium (ephindaphinda futhi yandisa amanani entengo ensimbi ka-2018) futhi yamemezela amanani angama-25% ezimotweni zakwamanye amazwe kanye nezingxenye zezimoto ezibalulekile (kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-April). Intela ehlukile engu-20% ezimpahleni zaseShayina yayisivele isetshenziswe ngoMashi 4, 2025 njengesijeziso seqhaza laseChina elisolwa ekushushumbiseni i-fentanyl, futhi lokhu okungama-20% bekungeziwe kuma -34% amasha amenyezelwe ngo-Ephreli. Ngokufanayo, izinto eziningi ezithengwayo ezivela e-Canada nase-Mexico zibhekana nezintela ezingama-25% ngaphandle uma zihlangabezana ngokuqinile nezimfuneko "zemithetho yemvelaphi" ye-USMCA - isilinganiso esihambisana nezimfuno zase-US mayelana nokufuduka nenqubomgomo yezidakamizwa. Sekukonke, ngo-Ephreli 2025 i-US inamanani entengo aqondise ku-spectrum ebanzi yezimpahla: kusukela ezintweni ezingavuthiwe njengensimbi kuya emikhiqizweni eqediwe yabathengi, kuzo zonke izitha kanye nabalingani ngokufanayo. Ukuphatha kukaTrump kuze kwasayinda amanani entengo esikhathi esizayo emikhakheni ethize efana nezamapulangwe nemithi (okungenzeka kube ngama-25% emithini ethengwa kwamanye amazwe) njengengxenye yesu labo lokuphoqa ukubuyiselwa kwe-supply chain.

Imikhakha Namazwe Athintekile: Ngenxa yokuthi amanani entengo asebenza cishe kukho konke ukungenisa, yonke imikhakha emikhulu ithintwa , ngokuqondile noma ngokungaqondile. Nokho, eminye imikhakha iyagqama:

• Ukukhiqiza Nezimboni Ezisindayo: Izimpahla zasezimbonini zibhekene nesisekelo esingu-10% emhlabeni wonke, ngamanani aphezulu kubakhiqizi abavela emazweni afana neJalimane (ngentela ye-EU), i-Japan, iNingizimu Korea, njll. Izimpahla ezinkulu nemishini evela phesheya zizobiza kakhulu. Ngokuphawulekayo, izimoto nezingxenye ezivela kwamanye amazwe zibhekene no-25% omkhulu (obekwe ngokwehlukana) oshaya kakhulu abenzi bezimoto baseYurophu naseJapane. Insimbi ne-aluminium kusasele ngaphansi kwentela engu-25% yezenzo zangaphambili. Lezi zindleko zihlose ukuvikela abakhiqizi bensimbi nabakhi bezimoto base-US, kanye nokukhuthaza lezi zimboni ukuthi zikhiqize kuleli.

• Izimpahla Zabathengi Nokuthengisa: Izigaba ezifana ne-electronics, izingubo zokugqoka, izinto zikagesi, ifenisha, namathoyizi - okuningi kwakho okungeniswa kwamanye amazwe ( uTrump umemezela amanani amasha ashanelayo ukuze akhuthaze ukukhiqizwa kwe-US, ukwehla kwamandla emali engcupheni kanye nezimpi zohwebo | Izindaba ze-AP ) izobona ukukhuphuka kwentengo ngenxa yezindleko (isb. izinto eziningi zikagesi ezivela e-China noma eMexico manje zinemisebenzi engu-10–3 ). Imikhiqizo yansuku zonke yabathengi, kusukela komakhalekhukhwini kuya kumathoyizi ezingane kuya ezimpahleni zokugqoka , icacile ngokuphambana kwezindleko ezintsha. Abathengisi abakhulu baseMelika baxwayise ngokuthi izindleko zalezi zimali zizodluliselwa kubathengi uma zigcinwa.

• EzoLimo Nokudla: Nakuba izinto zezolimo ezingavuthiwe zingabaliwe, i-US ingenisa ngaphandle ukudla okuyisisekelo okuncane kakhulu. Noma kunjalo, ukungenisa okuthile kokudla kwamanye amazwe (izithelo, imifino ephelelwe yisikhathi, ikhofi, ukhokho, ukudla kwasolwandle, njll.) kuzongenisa okungenani izindleko ezingeziwe ezingu-10%. Ngaleso sikhathi, abalimi base-US bavezwe kakhulu ngasohlangothini lokuthekelisa : ozakwethu ababalulekile abafana ne-China, i-Mexico, ne-Canada baphindisela ngezintela ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwezolimo e-US (isb. I-China ibeke amanani afinyelela ku-15% kumabhontshisi wesoya aseMelika, ingulube, inyama yenkomo, nezinkukhu ekuphenduleni). Ngakho-ke, umkhakha wezolimo uthinteke ngokungaqondile ngenxa yokulahleka kokuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe kanye ne-gluts.

• Izingxenye Zobuchwepheshe Nezimboni: Imikhiqizo eminingi yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu noma izingxenye ezingeniswe zisuka e-Asia zizobhekana nezindleko (yize amanye ama-semiconductors abalulekile ekhululiwe). Isibonelo, okokusebenza kwenethiwekhi, izinto zikagesi zabathengi, nezingxenyekazi zekhompuyutha - ngokuvamile ezenziwa e-China, e-Taiwan, noma e-Vietnam - manje kunezintela zokungenisa ezibalulekile. Uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngobuchwepheshe babathengi lusemhlabeni jikelele: njengoba i-CEO ye-Best Buy yaphawula, i-China ne-Mexico yimithombo emibili ephezulu yezinto zikagesi ezizithengisayo. Izinkokhelo kuleyo mithombo zizophazamisa uhlu lwempahla futhi zikhuphule izindleko kubathengisi bezobuchwepheshe. Ukwengeza, i-China iziphindiselele ngokukhawulela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwezakhi zomhlaba ezingavamile (ezibalulekile ekukhiqizeni ubuchwepheshe obuphezulu), ezingacindezela amafemu ase-US zobuchwepheshe nezokuvikela athembele kulokhu okokufaka.

• Amandla Nezinsiza: Uwoyela ongahluziwe, igesi yemvelo, namaminerali athile abalulekile akhululwa yi-US (ivuma isidingo salokhu kuthengwa kwamanye amazwe). Kodwa-ke, ngokwezwe umkhakha wezamandla awuthintwa: ekuqaleni kuka-2025 i-China yashaya intela entsha engu-15% ekuthunyelweni kwe-US kwamalahle ne-LNG, kanye no-10% kuwoyela ongahluziwe wase-US . Lokhu kuyingxenye yokuziphindiselela kwe-China futhi kuzolimaza abathumeli bamandla baseMelika. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukungaqiniseki mayelana nokuhlinzekwa kungase kuthene amandla ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamandla awela imingcele.

Kafushane, amanani entengo ka-April 2025 aphawula inguquko ebanzi yabavikeli kunqubomgomo yezohwebo yase-US. Ngokuklama, zifinyelela kubo bonke ubudlelwano bokuhweba nemikhakha emikhulu . Izigaba ezilandelayo zihlaziya imithelela elindelekile yalezi zinyathelo kuze kube ngu-2027 emnothweni, ezimbonini, nasekuhwebeni komhlaba.

Imithelela Yezomnotho Omkhulu (i-GDP, Ukwehla kwamandla emali, Amazinga enzalo)

Ukuvumelana okubanzi phakathi kwezazi zezomnotho ukuthi lezi zindleko zizosebenza njengesidonsi ekukhuleni komnotho zibe zikhuphula izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali e-US nasemhlabeni jikelele. Ngokubona kukaTrump, amanani entela azonyusa amakhulu ezigidigidi emalini engenayo futhi avuselele umkhiqizo wasekhaya. Kodwa-ke, ochwepheshe abaningi baxwayisa ngokuthi noma iyiphi inzuzo yesikhathi esifushane ingase idlulwe izindleko eziphakeme, amanani ohwebo ancishisiwe, nezinyathelo zokuziphindiselela.

Umthelela Ekukhuleni Kwe-GDP: Wonke amazwe azolahlekelwa okuthile kokukhula kwe-GDP kwangempela phakathi kuka-2025-2027 ngenxa yempi yentela. Ngokukhokhisa ngempumelelo intela ethengwayo ngaphandle (kanye nokugqugquzela ukuziphindiselela kokuthunyelwa ngaphandle), amanani entengo anciphisa umsebenzi wokuhweba jikelele kanye nokusebenza kahle. Njengoba esinye isazi sezomnotho safingqa, “Yonke iminotho ehilelekile ezindlekweni izobona ukulahlekelwa ku-GDP yayo yangempela” kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani omthengi. Umnotho wase-US, ohlanganiswe ngokujulile kumaketanga okunikezwayo emhlabeni jikelele, ungahamba kancane kakhulu: abathengi bazothenga izimpahla ezimbalwa uma amanani eqa, futhi abathumela kwamanye amazwe bazothengisa kancane uma izimakethe zangaphandle zivalwa. Izikhungo zokubikezela ezinkulu zehlise ukuqagela kokukhula - ngokwesibonelo, abahlaziyi be-JPMorgan bakhuphule amathuba okwehla komnotho e-US ngo-2025-2026 kuya ku-60%, beveza ukushaqeka kwentela njengesizathu esiyinhloko (kusuka esimweni esiyisisekelo esingu-30% ngaphambi kwalezi zinyathelo). Izilinganiso ze-Fitch nazo zixwayise ngokuthi uma inani lentengo lase-US leqa ngempela ku- ~22%, kungaba ukushaqeka okukhulu kangangokuthi "ungalahla izibikezelo eziningi ngaphandle komnyango" nokuthi amazwe amaningi angagcina ehle komnotho ngaphansi kombuso wentela owandisiwe.

Esikhathini esifushane (ezinyangeni ezi-6-12 ezizayo), ukukhokhiswa kwentela kungazelelwe kudala ukwehla okukhulu ekuhwebeni kohwebo kanye nokushaqeka kokuzethemba kwebhizinisi. Abathekelisi baseMelika bafuna ukulungisa, okungasho ukushoda kwempahla yesikhashana noma ukuthenga ngokushesha (amanye amafemu alayishwe ngaphambili i-inventory ngaphambi kokuba amanani entengo ashaywe, akhuphule ukuthengiswa kwe-Q1 2025 kodwa okubangele ukwehla ngemva kwalokho). Abathumeli bangaphandle, ikakhulukazi abalimi nabakhiqizi, sebevele babona ukukhanselwa kwe-oda njengoba abathengi bangaphandle belindele amanani amasha. Lokhu kuphazamiseka kungase kuholele ekuwohlokeni kafushane maphakathi no-2025 , okungenzeka kube nokuntenga komnotho kwezinye izindawo. Ngaphezulu kuka-2026–2027, uma amanani entengo eqhubeka, amaketango okunikezwayo emhlabeni jikelele azohleleka kabusha futhi ukukhiqizwa okuthile kungase kuthuthelwe kwenye indawo , kodwa izindleko zoshintsho cishe zizogcina ukukhula kungaphansi kwethrendi yangaphambi kwentela. I-International Monetary Fund ixwayise ngokuthi impi yezohwebo eqhubekayo yalolu hlobo ingasusa amaphuzu ambalwa ku-GDP yomhlaba eminyakeni embalwa edlule, njengoba kwenzeka eziqeshini ezidlule zokuvikela umhlaba wonke (yize izibalo eziqondile zisalinde ukuhlaziywa kwe-IMF okubuyekeziwe ngenxa yalezi zinqubomgomo ezintsha).

Ngokomlando, ukuqhathanisa kwenziwe ku- Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act ka-1930 , owanyusa amanani entengo ase-US ezinkulungwaneni zezimpahla futhi okukholakala kabanzi ukuthi ujulise Ukuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho. Abahlaziyi baqaphela ukuthi amazinga entengo anamuhla asondela kulawo angakaze abonwe kusukela ku-Smoot-Hawley . Njengoba nje amanani entengo yawo-1930s abangela ukuwa ekuhwebeni kwamazwe ngamazwe, izinyathelo zamanje zibeka engcupheni yesilonda esifanayo sokuzilimaza. I-Libertarian Cato Institute ixwayise ngokuthi amanani amasha abeka engcupheni impi yezohwebo futhi ajulisa Ukuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho”** ngokufana komlando. Nakuba isimo sezomnotho manje sihlukile (uhwebo luyingxenye encane ye-GDP yase-US kunakwamanye amazwe, futhi inqubomgomo yezimali isabela kakhulu), isiqondiso somthelela - ukushaya okungalungile komkhiqizo - kulindeleke ukuthi kufane, ngisho noma kungeyona inhlekelele130.

Ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nezintengo zabathengi: Izintela zisebenza njengentela ezimpahleni ezingenisiwe, futhi abangenisi bavame ukudlulisela izindleko kubathengi. Ngakho-ke, ukwehla kwamandla emali kungenzeka kunyuke esikhathini esifushane . Abathengi baseMelika bazobona amanani aphezulu emikhiqizweni ehlukahlukene - njengokudla , izingubo zokugqoka, amathoyizi, nezinto zikagesi kulindeleke ukuthi zibize kakhulu ngoba eziningi zitholakala eChina, Vietnam, Mexico nakwamanye amazwe akhokhiswa intela. Isibonelo, amaqembu ezimboni alinganisele ukuthi intengo yamathoyizi ingagxuma ifike ku -50% ngenxa yentengo ehlanganisiwe engu-34–46% yamathoyizi avela e-China naseVietnam, okuyiwona aphethe uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwamathoyizi (lesi sibalo sikhonjwe abakhiqizi bamathoyizi ekuqaleni kuka-April 2025 ( Okufanele ukwazi ngezintela zikaTrump kanye nomthelela wazo emabhizinisini nasezitolo ezintsha ze-AP) | Ngokufanayo, izinto zikagesi ezidumile zabathengi njengama-smartphone namakhompyutha aphathekayo, amaningi awo ahlanganiswe e-China, angabona ukukhuphuka kwentengo enamadijithi amabili.

Abathengisi abakhulu baseMelika baqinisekisa ukuthi kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke amanani . Isikhulu esiphezulu se-Best Buy u-Corie Barry siphawule ukuthi abathengisi babo kuzo zonke izigaba zama-elekthronikhi cishe "bazodlulisela izinga elithile lezindleko zentela kubathengisi, okwenza ukwanda kwentengo kubathengi baseMelika kube nokwenzeka kakhulu." Ubuholi bukaTarget buphinde baxwayisa ngokuthi amanani entengo afaka “ingcindezi enkulu” ezindlekweni nasemalini, okuholela ekwenyukeni kwamanani entengo. Uma sekuhlangene, osomnotho bahlela ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US Consumer Price Index (CPI) kungaba phezulu ngamaphesenti angu-1–3 ngo-2025–2026 kunalokho obekungaba njalo ngaphandle kwezintela, kucatshangelwa ukuthi izinkampani zidlula eziningi zezindleko. Lokhu kuza ngesikhathi lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali bekukade kwengamele; ngakho, amanani angase anciphise imizamo ye-Federal Reserve yokunciphisa ukwehla kwamandla emali . Okuxakayo ukuthi, uMongameli uTrump ukhankasele ukwehlisa ukwehla kwamandla emali, kodwa ngokukhuphula intela yokungenisa ezweni ngokubanzi - iphuzu ngisho namanye amaSenenja aseRiphabhlikhi avela ezifundeni zasemapulazini nasemngceleni aphakamise ukuphikisa.

Sekushiwo lokho, kunezindlela ezithile zokunciphisa ukwehla kwamandla emali ngemuva kokushaqeka kokuqala. Uma isidingo sabathengi siba buthaka ngenxa yamanani aphezulu nokungaqiniseki, abathengisi bangase bangakwazi ukudlulisa u-100% wezindleko futhi bangamukela amamajini aphansi noma banciphise izindleko kwenye indawo. Ukwengeza, idola eliqinile (uma abatshalizimali bomhlaba wonke befuna ukuphepha ezimpahleni zase-US phakathi nezinxushunxushu) linganciphisa kancane ukukhuphuka kwentengo yokungenisa. Ngempela, ngokushesha ngemva kokumenyezelwa kwentela, izimakethe zezimali zabonisa okulindelekile ukukhula kancane , okufaka ingcindezi ephansi emazingeni enzalo (isb. Isivuno soMgcinimafa wase-US sehlile, okunomthelela ekwehleni kwamazinga emali ebolekiwe). Izilinganiso zenzalo eziphansi, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, zingadambisa ukwehla kwamandla emali ngokupholisa isidingo. Kodwa-ke, esikhathini esiseduze (ezinyangeni ezi-6-12 ezizayo), umthelela wensalela cishe uzokhula ngokunyuka kwamanani emali : ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphakeme kuhlangene nokukhula okuhamba kancane, njengoba umnotho ulungisa isimo esisha sohwebo.

**Inqubomgomo Yezimali Nezilinganiso Zenzalo: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuqhutshwa intela kungase kudinge inqubomgomo yemali eqinile (amazinga enzalo aphezulu) ukuze kugcinwe ukukhula kwentengo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ubungozi bokuwohloka komnotho kanye nokuntengantenga kwezimakethe zezimali kungaphikisana nokuxegiswa kwenqubomgomo. Ekuqaleni, i-Fed ibonise ukuthi izoqapha isimo ngokucophelela; abahlaziyi abaningi balindele ukuthi i-Fed isebenzise indlela "yokulinda bese ubona" ​​maphakathi no-2025, ukuhlola ukuthi ukwehla kokukhula noma ukukhuphuka kwamandla emali kuwumkhuba ovelele. Uma izimpawu zikhomba ukwehla okukhulu (isb. ukunyuka kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi, ukwehla komphumela), i-Fed ingase yehlise amanani naphezu kwamanani entengo aphezulu. Eqinisweni, izinkomba zesitoko saseMelika zehle kakhulu izinsuku ezilandelanayo - i-Dow Jones yehle ngaphezu kuka-5% kuzo zonke izikhathi zokuhweba ezimbili kulandela izinyathelo zokuziphindiselela zaseChina, okubonisa ukwesaba ukwehla komnotho. Imikhiqizo ephansi yebhondi isivele isizile ukunciphisa amanani emali mboleko kanye nezinye izilinganiso zenzalo yesikhathi eside ngisho nangaphandle kokungenelela kwe-Fed.

Kusukela ngo-2025–2027, izilinganiso zenzalo zizololongwa ngalokho okuzoba khona: ukwehla kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo okuvela ezindlekweni noma ukwehla komnotho okuqhubekayo. Uma impi yezohwebo iqhubeka nentela egcwele ekhona, osomnotho abaningi babikezela ukuthi i-Fed ingase incike ekunciphiseni inqubomgomo ngasekupheleni kuka-2025 ukuze ikhuthaze ukukhula, uma sekucacile ukuthi ukushaqeka kwentengo kokuqala sekuthathwe futhi usongo olukhulu ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi. Ngo-2026 noma 2027, uma ukwehla komnotho kubambekile (okuyinto engenzeka ngempela ngaphansi kwesimo sempi yezohwebo esikhulayo), amanani enzalo angaba ngaphansi kakhulu kunanamuhla njengoba i-Fed (namanye amabhange amaphakathi emhlabeni jikelele) esebenza ukuze avuselele isidingo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma umnotho ukhombisa ukuqina kungazelelwe futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhlala kuphakeme, i-Fed ingaphoqeleka ukuthi ibe nesimo soklebe, ibeke engcupheni yesimo sokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngamafuphi, amanani entengo afaka ukungaqiniseki okukhulu ekubukeni kwenqubomgomo yezimali. Okuwukuphela kwesiqinisekiso ukuthi abenzi bezinqubomgomo manje bazulazula endaweni engashiwongo - amazinga entela ase-US awabonwa cishe eminyakeni eyikhulu - okwenza imiphumela yomnotho omkhulu ingaqondakali kakhulu.

Imithelela Ethize Embonini (Ukukhiqiza, Ezolimo, Ubuchwepheshe, Amandla)

Ukushaqeka kwentela kuzodlula ezimbonini ezihlukene ngokungalingani, kudale abawinile, abahluliwe, kanye nezindleko zokulungisa ezisabalele . Ezinye izimboni ezivikelwe zingase zijabulele ukuthuthukiswa kwesikhashana, kuyilapho ezinye zihlupheka ngenxa yezindleko eziphezulu.

Ezokukhiqiza kanye Nezimboni

(Iphepha Eliyiqiniso: UMongameli uDonald J. Trump Umemezela Isimo Esiphuthumayo Sikazwelonke Ukuze Sandise Umkhawulo Wethu Wokuncintisana, Uvikele Ubukhosi Bethu, Futhi Uqinise Ukuphepha Kwethu Kwezwe Nomnotho - I-White House)

Ukukhiqiza kuphakathi nendawo yentela kaTrump. UMongameli uthi lezi zintela ezithengwa kwamanye amazwe zizovuselela amafekthri ase-US futhi zibuyise imisebenzi elahlekele ekuhwebeni. Ngempela, izimboni ezifana nensimbi, i-aluminium, imishini, nezingxenye zezimoto - osekunesikhathi eside zincintisana nokuthengwa kwempahla eshibhile kwamanye amazwe - manje zivikelwe amanani abalulekile ezimbangi zakwamanye amazwe. Ngokombono, lokhu kufanele kunikeze abakhiqizi base-US unqenqema emakethe yasekhaya. Isibonelo, imishini engenisiwe noma amathuluzi avela e-Europe manje aphethe intela engu-20%, ngakho okokusebenza okwenziwe eMelika ishibhile kakhulu kubathengi baseMelika. Abenzi bensimbi sebevele bahlomulile emalini yensimbi engu-25%: izintengo zensimbi zasekhaya zeqa njengoba kulindelwe, okungenzeka zivumele izigayo zensimbi zase-US ukuthi zikhuphule umkhiqizo futhi ziqashe kabusha ezinye izisebenzi (njengoba kwenzekile isikhashana ngemva kwentela ka-2018). Ukukhiqiza izimoto kungase futhi kubone imiphumela exubile - ukuthengwa kwezimoto zohlobo lwakwamanye amazwe kubiza kakhulu ngentela entsha yezimoto engu-25%, okungase kuholele ekutheni abanye abathengi baseMelika bakhethe imoto ehlanganiswe e-US esikhundleni salokho. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, i-Big Three automakers yaseMelika (GM, Ford, Stellantis) ingase izuze ingxenye yemakethe uma amanani entengo ezimoto ezingenisiwe enyuka. Kunemibiko yokuthi abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto base-Europe nabase-Asia bacabanga ukushintsha ukukhiqizwa okwengeziwe e-US ukuze bagweme amanani, okungasho ukutshalwa kwezimali kwefekthri entsha eMelika eminyakeni emibili ezayo (isb. I-Volkswagen ne-Toyota yandisa imigqa yokuhlanganisa yase-US).

Nokho, noma yiziphi izinzuzo zabakhiqizi basekhaya ziza nezindleko ezinkulu kanye nezingozi . Okokuqala, abakhiqizi abaningi base-US bathembele ezintweni ezingenisiwe kanye nezinto zokusetshenziswa. Intengo ka-10% yezinto ezifakwayo ezifana nogesi, izinsimbi, amapulasitiki, namakhemikhali inyusa izindleko zokukhiqiza e-US Ngokwesibonelo, ifekthri yaseMelika ingase idinge ukungenisa izingxenye ezikhethekile ezivela e-China; lezo zingxenye manje zibiza u-34% ngaphezulu, ziqeda ukuncintisana komkhiqizo wokugcina. Amaketanga okunikezela ahlanganiswe ngokujulile - iphuzu eligqanyiswe imboni yezimoto, lapho izingxenye zinqamula i-NAFTA/USMCA zinqamula izikhathi eziningi. Izintela ezintsha ziphazamisa la maketango okunikezwayo: izingxenye zezimoto ezivela e-China zibhekana nentela, futhi izingxenye ezihamba phakathi kwe-US, Mexico, ne-Canada zibhekana nezintela uma zingahlangabezani nemithetho eqinile yemvelaphi ye-USMCA , okungase kukhuphule izindleko zokuhlangana okusekelwe e-US futhi. Ngenxa yalokho, abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto baxwayisa ngezindleko eziphakeme zokukhiqiza kanye nokudilizwa okungenzeka uma ukuthengiswa kwehla. Ngokombiko wemboni wango-Ephreli 2025, abakhiqizi bezimoto abakhulu njenge-BMW neToyota, abangenisa izinhlobo eziningi eziqediwe nezinto ezisetshenziswayo, sebeqalile ukuhlela ukukhuphuka kwamanani ngisho nokumisa imigqa yokukhiqiza ngenxa yokwehla kokuthengisa okulindelekile. Lokhu kubonisa ukuthi nakuba i-Detroit ingase izuze, umkhakha wezimoto obanzi (okuhlanganisa abathengisi nabaphakeli) ungabona ukulahleka kwemisebenzi uma ukuthengiswa kwezimoto kukonke kwehla ngenxa yamanani aphezulu.

Okwesibili, abathumeli bokukhiqiza base-US basengozini yokuziphindiselela. Amazwe afana ne-China, Canada, kanye ne-EU abuyela emuva ngezintela eziqondise kuzimpahla zezimboni zaseMelika (phakathi kweminye imikhiqizo). Isibonelo, i-Canada imemezele ukuthi izofanisa amanani entengo yezimoto zase-US nentela engu-25% ezimotweni ezenziwe e-US . Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwase-US (cishe izimoto eziyisigidi ngonyaka, eziningi eziya e-Canada) zizohlupheka, kulimaza izimboni zezimoto zase-US ezakhelwa ukuthekelisa. Uhlu lokuziphindiselela lwaseChina luhlanganisa nemikhiqizo ekhiqiziwe efana nezingxenye zezindiza, imishini namakhemikhali. Uma imboni yase-US ilahlekelwa ukufinyelela kubathengi bakwamanye amazwe ngenxa yezintela eziphindiselayo, kungase kudingeke inciphise ukukhiqiza. Isibonelo salokhu: I-Boeing (umkhiqizi wasemkhathini waseMelika) manje ibhekene nokungaqiniseki eShayina - phambilini okuyimakethe yayo enkulu kunazo zonke - njengoba iChina kulindeleke ukuthi iguqule ukuthengwa kwezindiza kuyi-Airbus yaseYurophu ukuze ijezise isimo sohwebo sase-US. Ngakho-ke, izimboni ezifana ne-aerospace nemishini esindayo zingalahlekelwa ukuthengiswa okukhulu kwamanye amazwe .

Kafushane, ngokukhiqiza, amanani entengo ahlinzeka ngokukhululeka kokuncintisana nokungenisa emakethe yasekhaya (i-plus kwamanye amafemu), kodwa akhuphule izindleko zokufakwayo futhi abangele ukuziphindiselela kwamanye amazwe , okungekuhle kwabanye. Kusukela ngo-2025–2027, singase sibone eminye yemisebenzi yokukhiqiza yengezwe ezindaweni ezivikelekile (izigayo zensimbi, mhlawumbe izimboni ezintsha zokuhlanganisa) kodwa futhi nemisebenzi elahlekile emikhakheni encintisana kancane noma ebhekana nokwehla kwezinga lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe. Ngisho nase-US, amanani aphezulu ezimpahla ezikhiqiziwe angadambisa isidingo - ngokwesibonelo, amafemu okwakha angase athenge imishini embalwa uma amanani emishini enyuka, ehlisa ama-oda abenzi bemishini. Inkomba eyodwa yasekuqaleni: i -PMI yokukhiqiza yase-US (Inkomba Yabaphathi Abathengayo) yehle kakhulu ngo-Ephreli nangoMeyi 2025, isayina isivumelwano, njengoba ama-oda amasha (ikakhulukazi ama-oda wokuthekelisa) asoma. Lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi ku-net, umsebenzi wokukhiqiza ungase wehle esikhathini esiseduze naphezu kokuvikelwa, ngenxa yokudonseka komnotho kukonke.

Imboni yezoLimo nokudla

Umkhakha wezolimo ungomunye wezindawo ezichayeke kakhulu ekuweni kwempi yohwebo. Ngenkathi i-US ithenga kwamanye amazwe ezinye izinto zokudla, ingumkhiqizi omkhulu wempahla yezolimo - futhi lokho kuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuhloselwe ukuziphindiselela. Kungakapheli usuku esimemezelo sikaTrump, iChina, iMexico, neCanada - abathengi abathathu abakhulu bezimpahla zasemapulazini e-US - bonke bamemezele amanani okuphindisela kwezolimo zaseMelika . I-China, ngokwesibonelo, yabeka intela efika ku-15% ezinhlobonhlobo zezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zase-US ezihlanganisa isoya, ummbila, inyama yenkomo, ingulube, izinkukhu, izithelo namantongomane. Lezi zimpahla ziyizinsika zomnotho wasemapulazini ase-US (i-China ibithenga ngaphezulu kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-20 ngonyaka kabhontshisi wesoya wase-US kuphela eminyakeni yamuva). Izintela ezintsha zaseShayina zizokwenza okusanhlamvu nenyama yase-US kubize kakhulu e-China, okungenzeka kubangele abathekelisi baseShayina ukuthi bashintshele kubahlinzeki eBrazil, e-Argentina, eCanada, noma kwenye indawo. Ngokufanayo, iMexico yasayina ukuthi izoziphindiselela kwezolimo zase-US (yize ngesikhathi sesimemezelo iMexico yabambezela ukucacisa uhlu, iphakamisa ithemba lokuxoxisana). I-Canada isivele yakhokhisa intela emikhiqizweni ethile yokudla yase-US (ngonyaka ka-2025 iCanada yashaya intela engu-25% ezimpahleni zase-US ezingaba ngu-C$30 wezigidigidi, okuhlanganisa nezinye izinto zezolimo ezifana nobisi lwase-US nokudla okugayiwe).

Kubalimi baseMelika, lena i-déjà vu ebuhlungu yempi yohwebo ka-2018-2019, kodwa ngezinga elikhulu. Imali etholwa emapulazini kulindeleke ukuthi yehle njengoba izimakethe ezithumela kwamanye amazwe zincipha futhi amanani asekhaya ehla ezitshalweni ezingaphezulu. Amasheya kabhontshisi wesoya, ngokwesibonelo, ayakhula kuma-silos futhi njengoba i-China ikhansela ama-oda - yehlisa amanani kabhontshisi wesoya futhi ilimaza imali etholwa epulazini. Ngaphezu kwalokho, noma iyiphi impahla yasepulazini noma umanyolo othengwa kwamanye amazwe manje ubiza kakhulu ngenxa yezindleko, okukhuphula izindleko zokusebenza zabalimi. Umphumela uwukuminyanisa emalini yenzuzo yasemapulazini kanye nokudilizwa kwabantu ezindaweni zasemakhaya . Imboni yezolimo ibilokhu ikhuluma kakhulu: umfelandawonye wamaqembu okudla ase-US kanye namaqembu e-ag aphule amanani entengo ngokuthi "aphazamisa ukuzinza" futhi waxwayisa ngokuthi "babeka engcupheni yokubukela phansi izinhloso zokuqinisa ukukhula kwasekhaya" . Ngisho nabenzi bomthetho baseRiphabhulikhi abavela e-Iowa, Kansas, nakwezinye izifundazwe ezinzima bacindezela abaphathi ukuthi banikeze usizo noma ukukhululwa, bephawula ukuthi ukuqothuka kwamapulazi kungakhuphuka uma impi yezohwebo iqhubeka.

Abathengi bazozwa imiphumela ethile esitolo segrosa, nakuba i-US ikwazi ukuzimela ngokuyisisekelo. Izindleko zokuthengwa kokudla okungekho eMelika (imikhiqizo yasezindaweni ezishisayo njengekhofi, ukhokho, izinongo, izithelo ezithile) kusho amanani aphakeme kancane alezo zimpahla . Isibonelo, ushokoledi ungase uzuze kakhulu ngoba ukhokho wase-Côte d'Ivoire manje ubhekene nentela yase-US engu-21% , kodwa i-US ayikwazi ukukhiqiza ukhokho ekhaya nganoma yiliphi inani elibalulekile. (I-Côte d'Ivoire ikhula ~ 40% kakhokho womhlaba futhi i-US kumele ingenise cishe zonke izidingo zayo ze-cocoa.) Lokhu kubonisa iphuzu elibanzi: kwezinye izinto zezolimo okufanele zithengiswe kwamanye amazwe ngenxa yesimo sezulu (ikhofi, ukhokho, ubhanana, njll.), amanani entengo avele anyuse izindleko ngaphandle kokuthola inzuzo - awukwazi ukukhulisa izimfanzi e-US noma uguqule ukukhiqizwa kwekhofi e-Ohio. I-Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) yagqamisa lo mkhawulo wemvelo, iphawula ukuthi "akunakwenzeka ngokoqobo" ukukhipha kabusha ukukhiqizwa kokudla okuthile okufana ne-cocoa nekhofi; amanani entengo yezinto ezinjalo “izobeka kuphela izindleko emazweni asevele empofu” azithumela ngaphandle, ngaphandle kwenzuzo embonini yase-US. Kulezi zimo, abathengi base-US bakhokha kakhulu futhi abalimi bamazwe asathuthuka bahola kancane - umphumela wokulahlekelwa.

Umbono ka-2025–2027: Uma amanani entengo ehlala ekhona, umkhakha wezolimo kungenzeka uhlanganiswe futhi ufune izimakethe ezintsha. Uhulumeni wase-US angase angenelele ngoxhaso noma ngezinkokhelo zebheyili kubalimi (njengoba wenza ngo-2018–19) ukuze aqedele ukulahlekelwa. Abanye abalimi bangase batshale izitshalo ezithintekile kancane futhi bashintshele kwezinye (isibonelo, i-acreage yesoya encane ngo-2026 uma isidingo samaShayina sihlala sidangele). Amaphethini okuhweba angase ashintshe - mhlawumbe i-soy eminingi yase-US kanye nommbila kuya eYurophu noma e-SE Asia uma i-China ihlala ivaliwe, kodwa ukulungisa ukuhamba kohwebo kuthatha isikhathi futhi ngokuvamile kuhilela izaphulelo. Ngo-2027, singaphinde sibone izinguquko zesakhiwo: amazwe afana ne-China etshala imali eningi kwabanye abahlinzeki (i-Brazil isusa umhlaba owengeziwe wokukhiqiza ubhontshisi wesoya, njll.), okusho ukuthi noma amanani entengo esuswa kamuva, abalimi base-US bangase bangasitholi kalula isabelo sabo semakethe. Esimeni esibi kakhulu, impi yezohwebo ende isikhathi eside ingashintsha unomphela ukuhwebelana kwezolimo emhlabeni wonke, kube yingozi kubadayisi baseMelika. Ngaphakathi, abathengi bangase bangaboni ukushoda okukhulu, kodwa bangabona izimboni ezimbalwa zamapulazi eziqhutshwa kwamanye amazwe zithuthuka - okungenzeka kube nomthelela ekuthengisweni kwempahla yasemapulazini, ukuqashwa kwabantu basemakhaya, nezimboni ezilungisa ukudla ezixhumene nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe (njengokugaya ubhontshisi wesoya ukuze uthole ukudla namafutha). Kafushane, ezolimo zizolahlekelwa kakhulu kule mpi yentela, kokubili ngokushesha futhi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi uma abathengi bangaphandle beqala imikhuba emisha.

Ubuchwepheshe kanye ne-Electronics

Umkhakha wezobuchwepheshe ubhekene nenhlanganisela eyinkimbinkimbi yemiphumela. Imikhiqizo eminingi yobuchwepheshe ingenisiwe (futhi ngaleyo ndlela ishayiswa amanani entengo ase-US), futhi izinkampani zobuchwepheshe zase-US nazo zinezimakethe zomhlaba wonke (ezibhekene nokuziphindiselela kwamanye amazwe).

Ngasohlangothini lokungenisa, izinto zikagesi zabathengi kanye nehadiwe ye-IT kuphakathi kwezinto ezihamba phambili ezithengwayo ezivela e-China nase-Asia. Izinto ezinjengama-smartphones, amakhompyutha aphathekayo, amaphilisi, amagiya enethiwekhi, amathelevishini, njll., abathengi baseMelika namabhizinisi abawathenga ngamanani amakhulu, manje angaphansi kwentela okungenani engu-10% futhi ezimeni eziningi ngaphezulu (34% evela eChina, 24% evela eJapan noma eMalaysia, 46% evela eVietnam, njll.). Lokhu kuzokwenyusa izindleko zezinkampani ezifana ne-Apple, i-Dell, i-HP, nezinye ezingenakubalwa ezingenisa amadivaysi aphelile noma izakhi. Abaningi bazamile ukuhlukanisa ukukhiqizwa eChina ngesikhathi sokungezwani kwezohwebo kwangaphambilini - ngokwesibonelo, ukushintsha umhlangano othile baye eVietnam noma eNdiya - kodwa amanani amasha entengo kaTrump acosha cishe alikho elinye izwe (intengo yaseVietnam engama-46% iyisibonelo). Amanye amafemu angase azame ukunxenxa i-USMCA loophole ngokuhlanganisa umzila e-Mexico noma e-Canada (okuhlala kungakhokhiswa intela ezimpahleni ezifanele), kodwa abaphathi bahlela ukuqeda okuqukethwe okungekona okwaseNyakatho Melika nalapho. Esikhathini esifushane, lindela ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzeka kanye nokwenyuka kwezindleko ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwe-tech. Abathengisi abakhulu baqoqa izinto zikagesi ukuze babambezele ukunyuka kwentengo, kodwa uhlu lwempahla ngeke luhlale unomphela. Ngesizini yamaholide ka-2025, amagajethi emashalofini esitolo angaba namathegi amanani aphezulu ngokuphawulekayo. Izinkampani zobuchwepheshe kungase kudingeke zinqume ukuthi zizothatha yini ezinye zezindleko (ukushaya amaphethelo enzuzo yazo) noma zizidlulisele ngokuphelele kubathengi. Isexwayiso se-Best Buy sokunyuka kwamanani abanzi siphakamisa ukuthi okungenani ezinye zezindleko zizofinyelela kubathengi.

Ngaphandle kwamadivayisi wabathengi, ubuchwepheshe bezimboni kanye nezingxenye nazo ziyathinteka. Isibonelo, ama-semiconductors - amaningi awo enziwa e-Taiwan, e-South Korea, noma e-China - abalulekile ezimbonini zase-US. I-White House ikhiphe ama-semiconductors enkokhelweni entsha ngokucacile , okungenzeka ukugwema ukukhinyabeza ukukhiqizwa kwama-electronics e-US. Kodwa-ke, ezinye izingxenye ezifana namabhodi esekethe, amabhethri, izingxenye ze-optical, njll., akumele zikhishwe zonke. Noma yikuphi ukushoda noma ukwenyuka kwezindleko kulokhu kunganciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwayo yonke into kusukela ezimotweni kuya kumishini yezokuxhumana. Uma amanani entengo ephikelela, singabona ukusheshisa kwethrendi yokwenza okwasendaweni amaketanga okunikezela ngobuchwepheshe : mhlawumbe ukuhlanganiswa kwama-chip nokukhiqizwa kwezinto zikagesi okuthuthela e-US noma emazweni ahlangene angekho ngaphansi kwezindleko. Impela, abaphathi beBiden (esikhathini esidlule) base bevele sebeqalile ukugqugquzela izindwangu zasekhaya ze-semiconductor; Izintela zikaTrump zengeza ingcindezi eyengeziwe yokuthi amafemu ezobuchwepheshe enze okwasendaweni noma ahlukanise ukukhiqiza.

Ngasohlangothini lokuthekelisa, izinkampani zobuchwepheshe zase-US zingabhekana nokuhlehla kwamanye amazwe ezimakethe ezibalulekile. Ukuziphindiselela kweShayina kuze kube manje sekuhlanganise nezinyathelo eziqondise ezobuchwepheshe kanye nezimboni zase-US ngokungaqondile: I-Beijing imemezele ukuthi izobeka izilawuli eziqinile zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kumaminerali avela emhlabeni ayivelakancane (njenge-samarium ne-gadolinium) abalulekile ekukhiqizeni imikhiqizo yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu njengama-microchips, amabhethri emoto kagesi, nezingxenye ze-aerospace. Lesi sinyathelo siwumphumela ongemuhle, njengoba i-China ibusa ukunikezwa komhlaba okungavamile. Kungase kuphazamise izinkampani zobuchwepheshe nezokuvikela zase-US uma zingakwazi ukuvikela lezi zinsiza, noma ziziphoqe ukuthi zikhokhe amanani aphezulu emithonjeni okungeyona eyaseShayina. Ukwengeza, i-China yandise uhlu lwayo lwezinkampani zase-US ezingaphansi kwesjeziso noma imikhawulo - amafemu amaningi ase-US angu-27 engeziwe ohlwini lwabavinjelwe ukuhweba , kuhlanganise nabathile emkhakheni wezobuchwepheshe. Ngokuphawulekayo, inkampani yezobuchwepheshe yezokuvikela yase-US kanye nenkampani yezokuthutha babephakathi kwalabo ababevinjelwe ebhizinisini elithile laseShayina, futhi i-China yethula uphenyo ezinkampanini zase-US ezifana ne-DuPont e-China ngokungathembeki nokulahla. Lezi zenzo zikhomba ukuthi izinkampani zobuchwepheshe zaseMelika nezimboni ezisebenza e-China zingabhekana nokuhlukumeza okungokomthetho noma ukudukiswa kwabathengi. Isibonelo, i-Apple kanye ne-Tesla - izinkampani zase-US ezisezingeni eliphezulu e-China - bezingakaqondiswa ngqo, kodwa imithombo yezokuxhumana yaseShayina igcwele izingcingo zokuthi "uthenge amaShayina" futhi ugweme imikhiqizo yaseMelika ngemuva kwesimemezelo sentela. Uma lowo muzwa ukhula, izinkampani zobuchwepheshe zase-US zingabona ukuthengiswa kwehla e-China, i-smartphone enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni kanye nemakethe ye-EV.

Imithelela yesikhathi eside kubuchwepheshe: Ngaphezu kweminyaka emibili, umkhakha wezobuchwepheshe ungase ubhekane nokuhlelwa kabusha kwamasu . Izinkampani zingatshala imali eningi ekukhiqizeni ezindaweni ezingakhokhiswa intela (mhlawumbe ukukhulisa amafekthri e-US, nakuba lokho kuthatha isikhathi nezindleko eziphakeme) noma ziqhubekele phambili kumasofthiwe namasevisi ukuze kuncishiswe ukuthembela enzuzweni yehadiwe. Eminye imiphumela engemihle emihle: abakhiqizi basekhaya bezingxenye ezazitholakala kuphela e-China bangase bavele uma kukhona ithuba (ngokwesibonelo, ukuqalisa kwe-US kungase kuqale ukwenza uhlobo lwengxenye ye-elekthronikhi ngaphakathi ekhaya ukuze kugcwaliswe igebe – kusizwa umcamelo wentengo ongu-34% ngenxa yentela). Uhulumeni wase-US kungenzeka futhi asekele izimboni zobuchwepheshe ezibucayi (ngosizo lwezimali noma ngoMthetho Wokukhiqiza Kwezokuvikela) ukuze kuncishiswe izinkinga zokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo. Ngo-2027, besingabona uchungechunge lokunikezela ngobuchwepheshe obumaphakathi ne-China, kodwa futhi olusebenza kancane - okusho izindleko eziphakeme kanye nesivinini esihamba kancane sokuqamba izinto ezintsha ngenxa yokuncipha kokubambisana komhlaba wonke. Okwamanje, ukukhetha kwabathengi kungase kunciphe (uma amabhrendi athile e-electronics abiza kancane aphuma emakethe yase-US) futhi ukuqamba okusha kungase kuhlupheke njengoba izinkampani zisebenzisa izinsiza ekuzulazuleni kwentela esikhundleni se-R&D.

Amandla Nezimpahla

Imboni yezamandla ngokwengxenye iye yasindiswa idizayini, kodwa isathintwa ukungezwani okubanzi kwezohwebo kanye nezinyathelo ezithile zokuziphindiselela. I-US ikhiphe ngamabomu ngaphandle uwoyela ongahluziwe, igesi yemvelo, namaminerali abalulekile ezinkokhelweni zayo, ivuma ukuthi ukukhokhiswa kwentela lokhu kuzokhuphula izindleko zokufaka embonini yase-US kanye nabathengi (isb., amanani aphezulu kaphethiloli) ngaphandle kokukhulisa ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya kakhulu. I-US ayikwazi okwamanje ukuhlangabezana nazo zonke izidingo zayo zamaminerali athile (njengama-rare earths, i-cobalt, i-lithium) noma amamaki asindayo kawoyela ongahluziwe, ngakho-ke lokho kungenisa kwamanye amazwe kuhlala kungenamsebenzi wokuqinisekisa ukutholakala. Ukwengeza, "inkunzi" (igolide, njll.) yayikhululekile, cishe ukugwema ukuphazamisa izimakethe zezimali.

Kodwa-ke, abalingani bokuhweba baseMelika abazange babe nomusa ekuthunyelweni kwamandla e-US. Ukuziphindiselela kweShayina kuphawuleka kakhulu emandleni : kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2025, i-China yabeka intela engu-15% kumalahle ase-US kanye negesi yemvelo e-liquefied (LNG), kanye nentela engu-10% kuwoyela ongahluziwe wase-US. I-China ikhula ngokungenisa i-LNG kwamanye amazwe futhi ibingumthengi obalulekile we-US LNG eminyakeni yamuva nje; lezi zindleko zingenza i-US LNG ingakwazi ukuncintisana e-China uma kuqhathaniswa ne-Qatari noma i-Australian LNG. Ngokunjalo, i-China engenisa impahla engcolile yase-US yayiwuphawu lokuhamba kohwebo lwamandla - manje, ngenani lentengo, abacwengi baseShayina bangase bagweme imithwalo kawoyela yase-US. Eqinisweni, imibiko evela e-Beijing iphakamisa ukuthi izinkampani zaseShayina eziphethwe uhulumeni zimise kancane ukusayina izinkontileka ezintsha zesikhathi eside nabathumeli bangaphandle be-LNG base-US futhi zifuna ezinye izindlela (eRussia, Middle East) zikaphethiloli. Lokhu kuphambukiswa kohwebo lwamandla kungaba nomthelela kumafemu wamandla wase-US: Abathumeli bangaphandle be-LNG kungase kudingeke bathole abanye abathengi (okungenzeka e-Europe noma e-Japan, nakuba benenzuzo ephansi uma amanani ethinteka), futhi abakhiqizi bakawoyela base-US bangase babone imakethe yomhlaba wonke encipha, okungenzeka icindezele kancane amanani kawoyela e-US (elungele abashayeli, hhayi enkulu embonini ye-petroleum).

Esinye isici se-geopolitical siyavela: amaminerali abalulekile . Ngenkathi i-US ibakhulula, i-China isebenzisa ukulawula kwayo amaminerali athile njengesikhali. Siqaphele izilawuli zokuthunyelwa kwe-China emhlabeni ongavamile ngenhla. Izakhi zomhlaba ezingavamile zibalulekile kubuchwepheshe bamandla (izinjini zomoya, izinjini zezimoto zikagesi) nezinto zikagesi. Ukwengeza, kukhona amacebo okuthi i-China ingakhawulela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwezinye izinto (njenge-lithium noma i-graphite yamabhethri e-EV) uma ukungezwani kuba kubi kakhulu. Izinyathelo ezinjalo zingakhuphula amanani omhlaba alezi zinto ezifakiwe futhi zenze kube nzima ukukhula kwemboni yamandla ahlanzekile (okungenzeka ibambezele imizamo yase-US ezimotweni zikagesi kanye nobuchwepheshe obuvuselelekayo, okufeza ngokuxakayo ezinye izinjongo zokukhiqiza zase-US kuleyo mikhakha).

Imakethe kawoyela negesi iyonke ingase ibe nemiphumela engaqondile. Uma ukuhwebelana komhlaba wonke kwehla futhi umnotho usondela ekuwohlokeni komnotho, isidingo sikawoyela singehla, okuholela ekwehleni kwentengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke. Lokho kungase kuqale kuzuzise abathengi base-US (igesi eshibhile empompini), kodwa kuzolimaza imboni kawoyela yase-US, okungenzeka kubangele ukuncipha kokumba ngo-2026 uma amanani ehla. Ngokuphambene, uma ukungezwani kwe-geopolitical kusabalala (isibonelo, uma i-OPEC noma abanye bephendula ngokungalindelekile), izimakethe zamandla zingase zibe nokuguquguquka okwengeziwe.

Izimboni ezifana nezimayini namakhemikhali zingase zibone ukuvikeleka okuthile ohlangothini lokungenisa (isb., izinsimbi ezithengwa kwamanye amazwe ngaphandle kwensimbi/i-aluminium zinezindleko ezingu-10%, ezingasiza abavukuzi basekhaya kancane). Kodwa leyo mikhakha iphinde ibe ngabadayisi abasindayo futhi ingabhekana nezintela zangaphandle. Isibonelo, i-China yengeza amakhemikhali ephethiloli namapulasitiki ohlwini lwayo lwentela ngokumelene ne-US (uma kunikezwe ukuthunyelwa kwamakhemikhali okukhulu kweMelika), okungalimaza abakhiqizi bamakhemikhali baseGulf Coast.

Kafushane, indawo yamandla nempahla ivikelwe ngandlela thize ezindlekweni eziqondile zase-US kodwa ibanjiswe ku-tit-for-tat yomhlaba wonke . Ngo-2027, singase sibone ukuhwebelana kwamandla omhlaba okuphindwe kabili: ukuthunyelwa kukaphethiloli wase-US kuthambekele kakhulu e-Europe namadlelandawonye, ​​kuyilapho i-China isuka kwenye indawo. Ukwengeza, le mpi yohwebo ingase igqugquzele amanye amazwe ngokungazi ukuthi ehlise ukuncika emandleni nakubuchwepheshe base-US; isibonelo, ukugxila kweShayina emhlabeni ongavamile kungase kusheshise ukukhushulwa kwayo phezulu kochungechunge lwenani (ukwenza imikhiqizo yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu kakhulu ekhaya ukuze ingadingi ubuchwepheshe base-US – nakuba lokho kuyindaba yesikhathi eside ngale kuka-2027).

Iphuzu elibalulekile ngemboni: Nakuba ezinye izimboni zase-US zingajabulela impumuzo yesikhashana emiqhudelwaneni yangaphandle (isb. ukwenza insimbi okuyisisekelo, ukukhiqizwa kwemishini kagesi), izimboni eziningi zizobhekana nezindleko eziphakeme kanye nemakethe yomhlaba wonke engathandeki . Imvelo exhumene yokukhiqiza yesimanje isho ukuthi awukho umkhakha ohlukanisiwe ngempela . Ngisho nezimboni ezivikelwe zingase zithole ukuthi noma yiziphi izinzuzo zihlanganiswa amanani okufakwayo aphezulu noma ukulahlekelwa okuziphindiselelayo. Izintela zisebenza njengokushaqeka kokwabiwa kabusha - imali kanye nezabasebenzi zizoqala ukushintshela ezimbonini ezisebenzela izidingo zasekhaya futhi ziqhelelane nalezo ezithembele kwezohwebo. Kodwa ukwabiwa kabusha okunjalo akuphumelelanga futhi kuyabiza okwamanje. Iminyaka emibili ezayo cishe izoba yinkathi yokulungiswa okuqinile njengoba izimboni zihlela kabusha uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka namasu okubhekana nesimo esisha sentela.

Imithelela Kumaketango Okuthengiswayo kanye Namaphethini Ohwebo Lwamazwe Ngamazwe

Ukwenyuka kwamanani entengo ka-April 2025 sekumi ngomumo ukuze kukhuphule uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke kanye nokushintsha amaphethini ohwebo osekunamashumi eminyaka kwenziwa. Izinkampani emhlabeni jikelele zizobe zihlola kabusha ukuthi zithola kuphi izingxenye nokuthi zithola kuphi umkhiqizo ukuze kwehliswe umthelela wezindleko.

Ukuphazanyiswa Kwamaketanga Okuthenga Okukhona: Amaketango amaningi okuhlinzeka, ikakhulukazi ku-electronics, izimoto, nezingubo, athuthukiswa ngaphansi kokucatshangwa kwezindleko eziphansi kanye nokuhweba okungenazingxabano. Kungazelelwe, amanani entengo ka-10–30% eshaywa ekunyakazeni okuningi kwemingcele, ukubala kushintshile. Sesivele sibona ukuphazamiseka okusheshayo: izimpahla ebezithuthwa ngesikhathi amanani entengo efika abambeke ekukhishweni kwechweba ngezindleko eziphakeme kungazelelwe, futhi amafemu azama ukuhlela kabusha ukuthunyelwa . Isibonelo, iloli elithwala umkhiqizo lisuka e-Mexico liya e-US manje lingase libhekane nentela uma umkhiqizo ungahlangabezani nemithetho yokuqukethwe ye-USMCA (ukukhiqiza kungumsuka wendawo oqondile, kodwa ukudla okugayiwe okunezithako zase-US kungase kufaneleke). Izithombe zamaloli agcwele impahla lapho kweqa imingcele zigcizelela ukuthi imigqa yokuphakela yaseNyakatho Melika ididiyelwe kanjani - nokuthi manje kufanele ilungise kanjani. Izimpahla ezibalulekile zisahamba, kodwa ngezindleko eziphakeme noma ngamaphepha amaningi okufakazela imvelaphi.

Izinkampani zizosheshisa imizamo "yokwenza isifunda" noma "i-friend-shore" yamaketanga . Lokhu kusho ukuthola okokufaka okwengeziwe ngaphakathi noma emazweni angekho ngaphansi kwezindleko ezengeziwe. Inselelo, njengoba kuphawuliwe ekuqaleni, ukuthi i-US empeleni iqondise cishe kuwo wonke amazwe, ngakho-ke zimbalwa izinketho zokuthola imali ngaphandle kwentela ngaphandle kweNyakatho Melika. Itheku eliphephile eliphawulekayo lingaphakathi kwe -USMCA bloc (US, Mexico, Canada) - izimpahla ezithobela ngokugcwele imithetho ye-USMCA (isb. izimoto ezinokuqukethwe okungu-75% eNyakatho Melika) zisengahweba ngaphandle kwentela ngaphakathi eNyakatho Melika. Lokhu kudala ugqozi oluqinile lwezinkampani ukuthi zandise okuqukethwe kweNyakatho Melika emikhiqizweni yazo. Singabona abakhiqizi bezama ukushintsha ukukhiqizwa kwengxenye eyengeziwe baye e-Mexico noma e-Canada (lapho izindleko ziphansi kune-US kodwa izimpahla zingangena e-US mahhala uma zifaneleka). Eqinisweni, iCanada neMexico ngokwabo bakhetha lokhu - bafuna ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali kudluliselwe kubo esikhundleni se-Asia. Uhulumeni waseCanada usezithathile izinyathelo, njengokuvimbela izimpahla ezithile zase-US ukuziphindiselela kanye nokukhuthaza ukutholakala kwendawo (isifundazwe sase-Ontario, ngokwesibonelo, sayeka ukuthenga utshwala obenziwe eMelika ezitolo zayo zotshwala, ukukhuthaza ezinye izindlela zasekhaya phakathi nempi yentela).

Kodwa-ke, ukwakha amaketango amasha okuhlinzeka akusheshi. Ngaphezulu kuka-2025–2027, cishe sizobona izinguquko ezikhulayo esikhundleni sokulungisa ubusuku bonke. Ezinye izibonelo: amafemu e-electronics angase abe izingxenye ezimbili (ezinye zisuka e-China ekhokhiswe intela, ezinye zisuka e-Mexico) ukuze zibheje. Abathengisi bangase bathole abanye abahlinzeki emazweni anentela eyisisekelo engu-10% kuphela kuno-34% (isibonelo, ukuthola izingubo ezivela e-Bangladesh (10%) esikhundleni se-China (34%). Kuzoba khona ukuphambukisa kwezohwebo - amazwe angaqondisiwe ngqo angazuza ngokuhlinzeka ngezimpahla ebezivela emazweni akhokhiswa intela. Isibonelo, i-Vietnam ne-China zikhokhiswa kakhulu intela, ngakho-ke abanye abangenisi base-US bangase baphendukele e -India, eThailand, noma e-Indonesia ukuze bathole izimpahla ezithile (lawo mazwe ngalinye libhekene nentela eyisisekelo engu-10%, futhi ngokunokwenzeka eyengeziwe kodwa ngokuvamile ephansi kuneyase-China - intela engeziwe yase-India ayikakashiwo esidlangalaleni kodwa intela yokuhweba yase-India ne-US ingase imeme intela eyengeziwe). Izinkampani zase-Europe zingase zishintshe ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ziyiswe e-US ngokudlula ezitshalweni zazo eSouth Carolina noma eMexico ukuze zidlule izintela. Ngokuyinhloko, lindela ukuhlelwa kabusha kokugeleza kohwebo : amaphethini izwe elinikeza lokho okuzoshintsha njengoba wonke umuntu ebheka ukunciphisa izindleko zentela.

I-Global Trade Volume namaphethini: Ezingeni elikhulu, lezi zindleko zingase zibangele ukuncipha okukhulu kumthamo wokuhweba womhlaba wonke ngo-2025-2026. I-World Trade Organisation (WTO) ixwayise ngokuthi umphumela ohlangene wentela yase-US kanye nokuziphindiselela unganciphisa ukukhula kohwebo emhlabeni ngamaphesenti ambalwa. Singabona isimo lapho uhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe lukhula kancane kakhulu kune-GDP (noma luncipha) njengoba amazwe ephendukela ngaphakathi. I-US ngokwayo, ngokomlando eyayingumshampeli wohwebo lwamahhala, manje isimisa ngempumelelo imigoqo ngezinga elingakaze libonwe ezikhathini zanamuhla. Lokhu kungase kukhuthaze amanye amazwe ukuthi ajulise ubudlelwano bokuhweba namanye, ngaphandle kwe-US - isibonelo, amalungu asele ezivumelwano ezifana ne-CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership without the US) noma i-RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in Asia) angase ahwebe kakhulu phakathi kwawo ngenkathi uhwebo lwase-US nalawo mazwe luwa.

Singase futhi sibone amabhulokhi okuhweba afanayo eqina. I-China kanye ne-EU kungenzeka ifune ubudlelwano obuseduze bezomnotho njengendlela ephikisana nokuvikelwa kwe-US, nakuba i-Europe nayo ihlaselwa yizintela zase-US futhi ingase ihambisane ne-US kwezinye izinto ezikhathazayo zamasu. Kungenjalo, i-EU, i-UK, namanye amadlelandawonye angase akhe uhlangothi olufanayo lokuxoxisana ne-US noma aziphindiselele. Kuze kube manje, ukusabela kwe-Europe kube yinkulumo eqinile kodwa isenzo esilinganisiwe: Izikhulu ze-EU zigxeke umnyakazo wase-US njengongekho emthethweni ngaphansi kwemithetho ye-WTO futhi zasho nokufaka izingxabano ku-WTO (i-China isivele ifake icala le-WTO ngokumelene nentela yase-US). Kepha amacala e-WTO athatha isikhathi futhi amanani entengo ase-US, athethelelwa ngaphansi “kwesimo esiphuthumayo sikazwelonke,” anyathela indawo empunga emthethweni wamazwe omhlaba. Uma inqubo ye-WTO ibonakala ingasebenzi, amazwe amaningi angavele abeke izintela zawo ekuphenduleni kunokuthembela ekwahluleleni.

Ukukhipha Kabusha kanye Nokwehlukanisa: Umthelela obalulekile ohlosiwe wezindleko “ukukhipha kabusha” ukukhiqizwa - ukubuyisela ukukhiqiza eMelika. Kuzoba khona okunye kwalokhu, ikakhulukazi uma amanani entengo ebukeka ehlala isikhathi eside. Izinkampani ezikhiqiza izimpahla ezisindayo noma ezinkulu (lapho izindleko zokuthumela kanye nezintela zenza kubenqabela ukungenisa) zingase zinyakazise ukukhiqiza. Isibonelo, abanye abenzi bezinto zikagesi nefenisha banganquma ukuthi manje sekonga ukwenza lezo zinto e-US ukugwema intela yokungenisa engu-10–20%. Abaphathi baphakamisa ukuhlaziya ukuthi intela yomhlaba wonke engu-10% (incane kakhulu kunalokho okwenziwayo) ingadala amathuba emisebenzi e-US ayizigidi ezingu-2.8 futhi ikhulise i-GDP, kodwa osomnotho abaningi bayakungabaza lokho kubikezela okuhle, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukuziphindiselela kanye nezindleko zokufaka eziphakeme. Izithiyo ezisebenzayo - ukutholakala kwekhono lomsebenzi, isikhathi sokwakhiwa kwefekthri, izithiyo zokulawula - kusho ukuthi ukukhishwa kabusha kuzohamba kancane kancane. Ngo-2027, singase sibone amafekthri amasha noma ukunwetshwa (ikakhulukazi emikhakheni efana nezingxenye zezimoto, izindwangu, noma ukuhlanganisa izinto zikagesi) e-US, obekungeke kwenzeke. Lokhu kuyingxenye yenhloso yokuphatha yochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngokuzimela kwezimpahla ezibalulekile (njengoba futhi kubonakala kuzinqubomgomo zakamuva zokuxhasa ukukhiqizwa kwama-chip asekhaya). Kodwa ukuthi lokhu kunxephezela ukulahleka kokusebenza kahle kanye nezimakethe zokuthekelisa kuyangabazeka.

I-Logistics and Inventory Strategies: Okwamanje, amafemu amaningi azolungisa ngokushintsha izinto zabo. Sibone abangenisi bempahla belayisha ngaphambili (abaletha izimpahla ngaphambi kokuthi kungene amanani), nakuba lokho kusebenza kanye kuphela futhi kuholela ekuthulekeni kamuva. Amafemu angase futhi asebenzise izindawo zokugcina izimpahla eziboshiwe noma izindawo zohwebo lwangaphandle e-US ukuhlehlisa amanani kuze kube yilapho izimpahla sezidingeka ngempela. Abanye bangase bahambise kabusha izimpahla emazweni anezinhlelo zohwebo ezivumayo (yize imithetho yemvelaphi ivimbela ukuthunyelwa kwezinto kalula). Empeleni, izinkampani zomhlaba wonke zizochitha iminyaka emibili ezayo zisungula kabusha amaketanga azo okuhlinzeka ukuze zikhule endaweni enentela ephezulu, into okungakaze kudingeke ukuthi ziyenze ngaleli zinga emashumini eminyaka. Lokhu kungase kuhlanganise ukungasebenzi kahle - njengokuthutha ifekthri hhayi ngoba iyindawo eshibhe kakhulu noma engcono kakhulu, kodwa ukuze kugwenywe intela. Ukuhlanekezela okunjalo kungehlisa ukukhiqiza emhlabeni jikelele.

Amathuba Ezivumelwano Zohwebo: I-wildcard eyodwa ukuthi ukushaqeka kwentela kungase kubuyisele amazwe etafuleni lezingxoxo. UTrump uphakamise ukuthi amanani entengo anamandla ukuze uthole "izivumelwano ezingcono." Kungenzeka ukuthi phakathi kuka-2025 no-2027, ezinye izingxoxo zamazwe amabili zenzeka lapho amanani athile akhushulwayo ukuze kunikezwe izimvume. Isibonelo, i-EU ne-US zingase zixoxisane ngesivumelwano somkhakha ukuze kwehliswe amanani entengo angu-20% uma i-EU ibhekana nokunye okukhathazayo kwase-US (isho ngezimoto noma ukufinyelela epulazini). Kuphinde kukhulunywe nge-UK nabanye abafuna ukukhululwa ngokuhambisana nezinjongo zamasu zase-US. Iphepha leqiniso likhuluma ngezintela zingehliswa uma ozakwethu “belungisa izinhlelo zokuhwebelana ezingahoshelani futhi bahambisane ne-US ezindabeni zezomnotho nezokuphepha zikazwelonke.” . Lokhu kusho ukuthi i-US ivuleleke ekwehliseni amanani entengo yamazwe okuthi, ngokwesibonelo, anyuse imali yawo yezokuvikela (izimfuno ze-NATO), ajoyine unswinyo lwase-US kwabamelene naye, noma avule izimakethe zawo ezimpahleni zase-US. Ngakho-ke, amaketanga okuhlinzeka nawo angaphendula ekuthuthukisweni kwezepolitiki: uma amanye amazwe eshaya izivumelwano ukuze abaleke ezindlekweni, izinkampani zizovuna lawo mazwe ukuthi athole usizo. Kusazobonakala uma izivumelwano ezinjalo ziyenzeka; kuze kube yileso sikhathi, ukungaqiniseki kubusa.

Sekukonke, ngo-2027, silindele uhlelo lokuhweba lomhlaba oluhlukene kakhulu . Amaketango okuhlinzekwa kwempahla azogxila kakhulu ekhaya noma esifundeni, kuzokwakhiwa ukungadingeki emsebenzini (ukugwema ukuncika ezweni elilodwa), futhi ukukhula kwezohwebo emhlabeni jikelele cishe kuzoba ngaphansi kunalokho obekungaba njalo. Umnotho womhlaba ungase uhlele kabusha ngokuphumelelayo eduze neqiniso le-United States evikelayo, okungenani phakathi nesikhathi sika-Trump, esingaba nemithelela ehlala njalo nangaphezulu. Ukusebenza kahle kohlelo oludala - ukutholwa komhlaba wonke okufika ngesikhathi nje endaweni eshibhe kakhulu - kunikeza indlela entsha yochungechunge lokunikezela ngempahla "olungenzeka nje" olubeka phambili ukuqina nokugwema intela. Lokhu kuza ngezindleko zamanani aphezulu kanye nokukhula okulahlekile, njengoba imithombo eminingi iye yabonisa: ngokusho kwe-Fitch, "isilinganiso sokukhuphuka kwezinga lentengo sifinyelela ku-22%" sibaluleke kakhulu kangangokuthi amazwe amaningi agxile ekuthumeleni kwamanye amazwe angase aphushelwe ekuwohlokeni komnotho, futhi ngisho ne-US izosebenza ngokusebenza kahle kancane.

Ukusabela okuvela kozakwethu bokuhweba kanye nemiphumela ye-Geopolitical

Impendulo yamazwe ngamazwe esimemezelweni sikaTrump se-tariff yayishesha futhi ikhomba. Ozakwethu bohwebo base-US ngokuvamile basigxekile lesi sinyathelo futhi bethula izinyathelo zokuziphindiselela , okuphakamisa umbono wempi yezohwebo ekhulayo enemithelela emikhulu yezwe.

I-China: Njengenhloso eyinhloko yentela yase-US, i-China iziphindiselele ngolunye uhlobo bese kuba okunye. I-Beijing iphendule ngokubeka intela engu-34% kukho konke ukungenisa kwezimpahla zase-US , kusukela ngo-Ephreli 10, 2025. Lena intela esheshayo ehloselwe ukukhombisa isenzo sase-US - ngokuyisisekelo ukuvala imikhiqizo eminingi yase-US emakethe yaseShayina ngaphandle kwalapho amanani ehla noma amanani entengo emunyiwe. Ukwengeza, i-China yathatha izinyathelo eziningi zokujezisa ngaphezu kwezindleko: yafaka icala ku-WTO iphonsela inselelo intela yase-US njengokwephulwa kwemithetho yokuhweba yamazwe ngamazwe. Ngolimi oluhlabayo, uMnyango Wezohwebo wase-China wasola i-US “ngokubukela phansi kabi uhlelo lokuhweba olusekelwe emithethweni ehlukahlukene” kanye nokuzibandakanya “ekuqineni uhlangothi olulodwa”. Yize amacala e-WTO engathatha iminyaka, lokhu kukhomba inhloso yeChina yokuhlanganisa umbono womhlaba wonke ngokumelene nomnyakazo wase-US.

Ukuziphindiselela kweShayina kuphinde kwathuthukisa amathuluzi e-asymmetrical, njengoba kuxoxiwe ngaphambili: ukuqinisa ukulawulwa kokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe amaminerali avela emhlabeni abalulekile kubuchwepheshe base-US, ukuvimbela izinkampani ezithile zase-US ngohlu lwayo “lwezinhlangano ezingathembekile”, kanye nokuqalisa uphenyo lokulawula ngokumelene namafemu ase-US eChina. Ize yasebenzisa izithiyo ezingezona zentela njengokumisa kungazelelwe ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwezimpahla zezolimo zase-US ngezizathu zokulawula (isibonelo, icaphuna ukutholwa kwezinto ezivinjelwe noma izinambuzane ezithunyelwa e-US). Zonke lezi zinyathelo zikhomba ukuthi i-China izimisele ukuzwisa ubuhlungu abadayisi baseMelika futhi idlale i-hardball. Ngokwe-geopolitical, lokhu kuqinisa ubudlelwano obuvele bushubile e-US-China. Kodwa-ke, kuyathakazelisa ukuthi iziteshi zezobuchwephesha azikabhidliki ngokuphelele - kwaphawulwa ukuthi izikhulu zamasosha ase-US kanye neShayina zabamba izingxoxo mayelana nokuphepha olwandle ngisho naphakathi kwempi yentela, okusho ukuthi izinhlangothi zombili zingase zihlukanise izindaba zohwebo kwezinye izindaba zamasu ngokwezinga elithile.

I-Canada ne-Mexico: Omakhelwane be-America, nozakwethu be-NAFTA/USMCA, baphendule ngengxube yokuziphindiselela nokuqapha. ICanada isithathe umugqa oqinile: UNdunankulu uJustin Trudeau umemezele amanani entengo yezimpahla zase-US ezingaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyi-100 phakathi nezinsuku ezingama-21. Lokhu cishe kuhlanganisa inhlobonhlobo yemikhiqizo; isenzo esisodwa esisheshayo saseCanada kwaba ukushaya intela engu-25% ezimotweni ezenziwe e-US ezingahambisani ne-USMCA (ukuphikisa intela yezimoto zikaTrump). Ukwengeza, ezinye izifundazwe zaseCanada zathatha izinyathelo ezingokomfanekiso ezifana nokususa utshwala baseMelika emashalofini ezitolo zotshwala (“LCBO” yase-Ontario yayeka ukubeka i-whisky yase-US, njengoba kuboniswa izithombe zabasebenzi bedonsa i-whisky yaseMelika emashalofini e-Toronto bebhikisha ). Lezi zinyathelo zigcizelela isu lase-Canada lokuphindisela kwezomnotho nengokomfanekiso ngenkathi iqoqa ukwesekwa komphakathi. Ngaso leso sikhathi, iCanada isebenzisana nabanye ababambisene nayo futhi kungenzeka iphishekele usizo ngezindlela zomthetho (iCanada izosekela izinselelo ze-WTO). Kuyaqapheleka ukuthi ukuziphindiselela kweCanada kulinganiselwe - kuqondiswe ekuthengisweni kwezwe kwe-US okubucayi ngokwepolitiki (njenge-whisky evela eKentucky, noma imikhiqizo yasemapulazini evela eMidwest) ukucindezela abaholi base-US ukuthi bacabange kabusha, benanela amaqhinga asetshenziswe engxabanweni yango-2018.

IMexico , ngaphansi kukaMongameli uClaudia Sheinbaum, nayo imemezele ukuthi izophendula ngezintela zokuphindisela ezimpahleni zaseMelika. Kepha iMexico ikhombise ukungabaza okwengeziwe: USheinbaum ubambezele ukumemezela okuhlosiwe kwaze kwaba yimpelasonto (ngemuva kwesimemezelo sokuqala), eveza ukuthi iMexico inethemba lokuxoxisana noma ukugwema ukungqubuzana okuphelele. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi umnotho waseMexico uboshelwe kakhulu e-US (u-80% wezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ziya e-US), futhi impi yohwebo ingaba yingozi kakhulu. Noma kunjalo, iMexico ayinakukwazi ukungaphenduli nhlobo, uma sikhuluma ngokwepolitiki. Singase silindele i-Mexico ukuthi ikhokhise amanani ekuthengisweni kwe-US okukhethiwe okunjengombila, okusanhlamvu, noma inyama (njengoba yenzile esikalini esincane phakathi nezingxabano ezedlule) - kodwa mhlawumbe futhi ifune inkhulumomphendvulwano ukuze ikhululwe izimboni ezithile. I-Mexico ngasikhathi sinye izama ukuheha ukutshalwa kwezimali njengoba izinkampani zicabanga kabusha ngamaketango okunikezela (ukuzibeka njengomzuzi wokusondela eduze). Ngakho-ke ukusabela kweMexico kuyinhlanganisela yokuziphindiselela kanye nokuxhumana nabantu : izophindisela ukwanelisa izimfuno zasekhaya zesithunzi nokubuyisana, kodwa ingase igcine impushana yomile ngethemba lokuvumelana. Ngokuphawulekayo, iMexico ibisebenzisana ne-US kweminye imikhakha (njengokulawula ukufuduka); I-Sheinbaum ingase isebenzise lokho njenge-bargaining chip ukuze uthole ukukhululeka kwentela.

I-European Union kanye namanye ama-Allies: I-EU iyigxeke kakhulu intela kaTrump. Abaholi base-Europe babize izenzo zaseMelika njengezingafanele, futhi uKhomishana Wezohwebo we-EU wafunga ukuthi uzophendula “ngokuqinile kodwa ngokulinganayo.” Uhlu lokuqala lwe-EU lokuziphindiselela (uma lusetshenziswa) lungalingisa indlela abaluthatha ngo-2018: luqondise emikhiqizweni eyizifanekiselo yase-US njengezithuthuthu ze-Harley-Davidson, i-bourbon whiskey, amajini, nemikhiqizo yezolimo (ushizi, ijusi yewolintshi, njll.). Kunenkulumo ethi i-EU ingase ibeke cishe ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-20 ezinkokhisweni zezimpahla zase-US , okuhambisana nomthelela wohwebo. Kodwa-ke, i-EU nayo izama ukubandakanya i-US ezingxoxweni - mhlawumbe ukuvuselela izingxoxo ngesivumelwano sohwebo esilinganiselwe noma ukubhekana nezikhalazo ngaphandle kwempi yohwebo egcwele. I-Europe iboshiwe: yabelana ngezinto ezikhathazayo zase-US mayelana nezinqubo zokuhweba zaseShayina, kodwa manje isizithola ijeziswa nangezintela zase-US. Ngokwepolitiki, lokhu kubangele ukungezwani kumfelandawonye waseNtshonalanga . Izikhulu ze-EU kubikwa ukuthi zenqabile izimfuno zase-US ezindabeni ezingahlobene (njengokwenyuka kwezindleko zokuvikela) ngemuva kokususwa kwentela, zikubona njengengxenye yengcindezi yase-US. Uma ukungqubuzana kwezohwebo kuqhubeka, kungase kudlulele ekusebenzisaneni kwamasu - isibonelo, ukwenza iYurophu ingathambekeli ekulandeleni ukuhola kwe-US ezindabeni zenqubomgomo yezangaphandle, noma iqhubekisele phambili imizamo ehlanganisiwe (njengokujezisa amazwe esithathu). Kakade, ubunye baseNtshonalanga buyavivinywa : isihloko esiphawulwe ngokuthi i-Europe ne-Canada zizothuthukisa ukuzivikela kodwa "zipholile ezidingweni zase-US" , okuyinkomba engaqondile yokuthi ingxabano yentela ilimaza kanjani ubudlelwano obuningi.

Amanye amadlelandawonye afana neJapan, iSouth Korea, ne-Australia nawo abhikishile. INingizimu Korea ayizange ibhekane nentela kuphela kodwa nenkinga yezombusazwe engahlobene (i-AP iphawule ukuthi umongameli waseNingizimu Korea ususwe phakathi kweziyaluyalu, okungenzeka kube ngengozi noma ngokwengxenye okubangelwe ukucindezeleka komnotho). I-24% yentela yase-Japan ibalulekile - i-Japan isayine ukuthi ingase inyuse amanani entengo yenyama yenkomo yase-US kanye nokunye okuthengisiwe kwamanye amazwe ukuze iziphindiselele, nakuba njengomlingane oseduze wezokuphepha, izozama ukugcina ubudlelwano obuhle. I-Australia, engashayeki kangako (imali encane yokuhwebelana ne-US), igxeke ukuphulwa kwemithetho yohwebo yomhlaba. Amazwe amaningi kungenzeka axhumane ngezinkundla ezifana ne-G20 noma i-APEC ukuze ngokuhlangene anxuse i-US ukuthi ihlehlise izifundo, igqamisa ubungozi bokukhula komhlaba.

Amazwe Asathuthuka: Isici esiphawulekayo umthelela kwezomnotho ezisathuthuka. Amazwe amaningi ezimakethe ezisafufusa (i-India, iVietnam, i-Indonesia, njll.) ashaywe ngamanani aphezulu e-US naphezu kokuthi abadlali abancane. Lokhu kwabangela ukusola okubukhali - i-India yabiza amanani entengo ngokuthi "uhlangothi olulodwa futhi olungalungile" futhi yaveza ukuphakamisa imisebenzi yayo ezimpahleni zase-US njengezithuthuthu nezolimo (i-India ikwenzile lokho esikhathini esidlule). Amazwe ase-Afrika naseLatin America akhathazekile ukuthi amanani azonciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwawo kwamanye amazwe futhi acekele phansi izimboni (njengezindwangu e-Bangladesh noma ukhokho eNtshonalanga Afrika). Ukuhlaziya kwe-Peterson Institute kwabonisa ukuthi amanani entengo kaTrump "angakhubaza umnotho osathuthuka" othembele ekuthumeleni e-US, ngoba lezi zindleko zedlula kakhulu amazinga entela yalawo mazwe futhi azinaki imikhawulo yawo yezomnotho. Lokhu kunezindleko ze-geopolitical: kulimaza ukuma kwe-US kanye nomthelela emazweni asathuthuka . Ngempela, kanye nokukhuphuka kwentela, abaphathi bakaTrump bebenciphisa usizo lwangaphandle, inhlanganisela engakhuthaza ukucasuka. Amazwe azizwa ecindezelwe angase afune ubudlelwano obuseduze neShayina noma amanye amandla anikeza enye ubambiswano lwezomnotho. Isibonelo, uma amazwe ase-Afrika ebona imakethe yase-US ivalwa, ingase ijike kakhulu ibheke e-Europe noma i-China's Belt and Road Initiative ukuze ikhule.

Ukuguqulwa Kwangempela Kwezombangazwe: Izintela azenzeki endaweni engenalutho - ziphambana nemisinga ebanzi yezwe. Umbango we-US-China udlondlobala kwezomnotho nakwezempi. Le mpi yezohwebo ingase isheshise ukuhlukaniswa komhlaba kube yimikhakha emibili yezomnotho : eyodwa egxile e-US enye eChina. Izizwe zingase zibhekane nengcindezi yokuba zikhethe uhlangothi noma zivumelanise izinqubomgomo zazo zezomnotho ngendlela efanele. I-US ibophele ngokucacile ukukhululeka kwentela emazweni ahambisana “nezindaba zokuphepha kwezomnotho nezwe”, okusho ukuthi i-quid pro quo: isekela izikhundla ze-US ezindabeni ezinjengokuhlukanisa izitha ezithile, futhi ungase uthole imigomo yokuhweba engcono. Abanye babona lokhu njenge-US isebenzisa amandla ayo emakethe ukuze ifinyelele izinjongo zamasu (ngokwesibonelo, okungenzeka inikeze i-EU noma i-India amanani aphansi uma ijoyina isimo sase-US ngokumelene nezifiso ze-China zobuchwepheshe noma ngokumelene neRussia, njll.). Ukuthi lokhu kuyaphumelela noma kuyahlehla kusazobonakala. Esikhathini esifushane, isimo se-geopolitical singesokungezwani okukhulu nokungathembani , i-US ibonwa njengesebenzisa amandla ezomnotho ngahlangothi lunye.

Izikhungo Zamazwe Ngamazwe: Le ntela yentela futhi ibukela phansi izikhungo zohwebo zomhlaba wonke njenge-WTO. Uma i-WTO ingakwazi ukwahlulela ngempumelelo le ngxabano (futhi i-US ibivimba ukuqokwa kwenhlangano yesikhalazo ye-WTO, iyenza ibe buthaka), amazwe angase aphendukele ekulawuleni ukuhweba okusekelwe emandleni esikhundleni sokusebenzisa umthetho. Lokho kungase kucekele phansi uhlelo lwezomnotho lwamazwe ngamazwe lwangemva kweWWII. Abambisene abebesebenza ngaphakathi kwe-WTO manje sebecubungula izinhlelo zesikhashana noma amadili amancane ukuze babhekane nakho. Empeleni, izenzo zikaTrump zingase zikhuthaze abanye ukuthi bakhe imifelandawonye emisha noma izivumelwano zohwebo ezingafaki i-US okwamanje, ngethemba lokulinda lesi sikhathi.

Kafushane, ukusabela ezindlekweni zikaTrump kube kubi emhlabeni wonke phakathi kozakwethu abahwebayo, okuholele kumjikelezo wokuziphindiselela okhulayo. Imiphumela ye-geopolitical ihlanganisa imifelandawonye enezinkinga, ubudlelwano obuseduze phakathi kwezimbangi zase-US, ukuba buthaka kwezinkambiso zohwebo zezizwe ngezizwe, kanye nengcindezi yezomnotho ezifundeni ezisathuthuka. Isimo sinezimpawu zempi yohwebo yakudala: uhlangothi ngalunye lwenyusa izinga ngezintela ezintsha noma imikhawulo. Uma kungaxazululwanga, ngo-2027 singabona isimo sezwe esishintshe kakhulu - lapho izingxabano zezohwebo zaphumela ebudlelwaneni obunamasu nalapho i-US, ngamabomu noma cha, ihoxile endimeni yayo yobuholi ekubuseni umnotho womhlaba.

Isisebenzi sesitolo se-LCBO e-Toronto sisusa i-whisky yaseMelika emashalofini (Mashi 4, 2025) njengoba i-Canada iziphindiselela ezindlekweni zase-US ngokuvimbela imikhiqizo ethile yase-US. Ukuthinta okunjalo okungokomfanekiso kugqamisa intukuthelo ehlangene kanye nomthelela wezinga labathengi wempi yohwebo.

Imakethe Yezabasebenzi kanye Nomphumela Wabathengi

Imisebenzi kanye Nemakethe Yezabasebenzi: Izintela zizoba nomthelela onzima kanye nesifunda esithile ekuqashweni. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kungase kube nenqwaba yezinzuzo zemisebenzi ezimbonini ezivikelekile, kodwa ukulahleka kwemisebenzi okubanzi kungenzeka ezimbonini ezibhekene nezindleko eziphakeme noma izithiyo zokuthumela ngaphandle. UMongameli uTrump uthembise ukuthi lezi zindleko "zizobuyisela izimboni nemisebenzi" e-US. Ukuqashwa okuthile kumenyezelwe ngempela: izigayo zensimbi ezimbalwa ezingasebenzi kahle zihlela ukuqala kabusha, okungenzeka zengeze imisebenzi eyizinkulungwane ezimbalwa emadolobheni ensimbi; ifekthri esebenza ngogesi e-Ohio ebidonsa kanzima ukuncintisana nezinto ezithengwayo ilindele ukungeza ishifu njengoba izimbangi ezivela kwamanye amazwe sezibhekene nentela. Lezi yizinzuzo ezibambekayo ezigxile emiphakathini ethile ekhiqizayo - ukuwina okugqamile kwezepolitiki okuzogqanyiswa abaphathi.

Kodwa-ke, ukulungisa lezi zinzuzo, amanye amabhizinisi anciphisa imisebenzi noma abeka emashalofini izinhlelo zokuqasha ngenxa yezindleko. Izinkampani ezithembele ekufakweni kwamanye amazwe noma emalini engenayo yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe zizobona inzuzo incinywa, futhi eziningi zisabela ngokunciphisa izindleko zabasebenzi. Isibonelo, umkhiqizi wemishini yasemapulazini aseMidwest umemezele ukudilizwa ebalula izindleko zensimbi ezikhuphukayo (okufakiwe kwazo) kanye nokwehla kwama-oda okuthunyelwa ngaphandle avela eCanada (imakethe yawo). Emkhakheni wezolimo, uma imali etholwa ngamapulazi yehla, kuba nemali encane engasetshenziswa emisebenzini nasezinsizeni; abasebenzi besizini bangase bathole amathuba ambalwa. Abathengisi bangase badilize: izitolo ezinkulu zilindele intengo ephansi uma amanani enyuka, okuholela abanye ekuqasheni kancane noma ukuvala izitolo eziseceleni. I-CEO ye-Target iveze ukuthi ukuthengisa bekuvele kuvilapha njengoba abathengi beqapha, futhi amanani entengo engeza "ingcindezi," kusho ukwehlisa izindleko okungenzeka kuseza.

Ezingeni elikhulu, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kungase kukhuphuke kusukela kokuphansi kwakho kwamanje. Izinga lokungasebenzi lase-US lalicishe libe ngama-4.1% ekuqaleni kuka-2025; ezinye izibikezelo manje zibona ikhuphuka ngaphezu kuka-5% ngo-2026 uma umnotho wehla njengoba bekulindelekile. Izifundazwe nemikhakha ezwelayo kwezohwebo izothwala kanzima. Ngokuphawulekayo, izifunda zaseFarm Belt (Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska) kanye nezifundazwe ezinzima ekukhiqizeni amazwe angaphandle (Michigan, South Carolina) zingabona ukulahleka kwemisebenzi okungaphezu kwesilinganiso esimaphakathi. Ukulinganisa okukodwa okwenziwe yi-Tax Foundation kuphakamise ukuthi uxhaxha olugcwele lwezinyathelo zokuhweba zikaTrump ekugcineni lunganciphisa ukuqashwa kwe-US ngamakhulu ambalwa ezinkulungwane zemisebenzi (ngaphambilini balinganisela imisebenzi embalwa ecishe ibe ngu-300,000 kusukela kumanani entengo ka-2018; amanani entengo ka-2025 makhulu ngobubanzi). Ngokuphambene, izifunda ezinezimboni ezincintisana nezinto ezithengwayo ezivela kwamanye amazwe (njengensimbi ePennsylvania noma ifenisha eNyakatho Carolina) zingase zibone iqhubu elincane lokuqashwa. Kukhona futhi i-engeli kahulumeni nezempi: uma i-US ishintshela ekuthengeni kwasekhaya kwezokuvikela nengqalasizinda ngenxa yobuzwe bezomnotho, eminye imisebenzi ingadalwa kuleyo mikhakha (yize lokho kungaqondile).

Amaholo nawo angathinteka. Ezimbonini ezinentela yokuvikela, amafemu angase abe namandla entengo engeziwe futhi angase anyuse amaholo ukuze ahehe abasebenzi (isb, uma izimboni zikhuphuka). Kodwa kuwo wonke umnotho, noma yikuphi ukwehla kwamandla emali okugqugquzelwa amanani entengo kuzocekela phansi amaholo angempela ngaphandle uma amaholo abizwa ngokuthi enyuka ngokufanayo. Uma, njengoba kulindelekile, ukwanda kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi nomnotho uphola, abasebenzi bayoba namandla amancane okuxoxisana ukuze bathole ukunyuselwa imali. Umphumela ungase ube amaholo amile noma awehlayo kubantu abaningi baseMelika, ikakhulukazi abasebenzi abahola kancane nabahola kancane abachitha ingxenye enkulu yemali engenayo ezimpahleni zabathengi ezithintekayo.

Abathengi - Amanani Nezinqumo: Abathengi baseMelika ngokungangabazeki yibona abalahlekelwa kakhulu kumanani entengo, okungenani esikhathini esiseduze. Izintela zisebenza njengentela abathengi abagcina beyikhokha ezimpahleni ezingenisiwe. Njengoba kuchaziwe ngaphambili, izintengo zemikhiqizo eminingi yansuku zonke zisethwe ukuthi zikhuphuke. Ngokwezibalo ezisuka ngasekupheleni kuka-2024 (ngenkathi kuhlongozwa lezi zindleko), umndeni ojwayelekile wase-US ungagcina ukhokha cishe u-$1,000 ngaphezulu ngonyaka wezimpahla uma izindleko ezigcwele zentela zidlula. Lokhu kufaka phakathi amanani aphezulu ezintweni ezifana namafoni, amakhompuyutha, izingubo zokugqoka, amathoyizi, izinto ezisetshenziswayo, ngisho nokudla okuyisisekelo okunezingxenye noma izithako ezingenisiwe.

Sesivele sibona imithelela esheshayo yabathengi: ukushoda kwempahla kanye nokuziphatha kokuqoqwa kwabathengisi kungase kubangele ukushoda kwesikhashana noma ukubambezeleka. Abanye abathengi baphuthume bayothenga amathikithi amakhulu athengwa kwamanye amazwe (njengezimoto noma ama-electronics) ngaphambi kokuthi amanani entengo aqale ukusebenza, okungase kulandelwe ukuthuleka ekusetshenzisweni njengoba amanani enyuka. Abahlaziyi bezitolo baxwayisa ngokuthi kuzoba nzima ukuthola isaphulelo - izitolo ezivamise ukuthengisa zingase zinciphise ngenxa yokuthi amamajini azo mancane manje. Eqinisweni, izinkomba zemizwa yabathengi zehla ngo-Ephreli, nezinhlolovo ezibonisa ukuthi abantu balindele ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphakeme futhi bakubheke njengesikhathi esibi sokuthenga okukhulu, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yezindaba zentela.

Abathengi abahola kancane bazozwa ubuhlungu obungalingani ngoba basebenzisa ingxenye ephezulu yeholo labo ezimpahleni (uma kuqhathaniswa namasevisi) nasezidingweni ezingase zibiza ngaphezulu. Isibonelo, abathengisi besaphulelo bangenisa izingubo eziningi ezishibhile kanye nempahla yasendlini; ukukhuphuka kwentengo okungu-10–20% kulabo abakhokha isheke eliphilayo lomndeni ukuze ukhokhe kanzima kunomndeni ocebile. Ukwengeza, uma ukulahleka kwemisebenzi kwenzeka emikhakheni ethile, izisebenzi ezithintekayo zizonciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwazo, okudale umphumela omubi kwezomnotho wendawo.

Izinguquko Zokuziphatha Kwabathengi: Ekuphenduleni ekukhuphukeni kwentengo, abathengi bangase baguqule ukuziphatha kwabo - ukuthenga okuncane, ukushintshela kwezinye izinto ezishibhile, noma ukubambezela ukuthenga. Isibonelo, uma amateku angenisiwe enyuka intengo, abathengi bangase bakhethe amabhrendi angenawo amagama noma bamane benze isikhathi eside ngezicathulo zabo ezindala. Uma amathoyizi ebiza kakhulu, abazali bangase bathenge amathoyizi ambalwa noma baphendukele ezimakethe zamasekeni. Ngokuphelele, lokhu kuncipha kwesidingo kungadambisa umthelela wokwehla kwamandla emali ngandlela-thile (okungukuthi, umthamo wokuthengisa ungase wehle), kodwa futhi kusho izinga eliphansi lokuphila - abathengi bathola okuncane ngemali efanayo.

Kuphinde kube nomthelela wezengqondo : ukungqubuzana kwezohwebo okubikwa kakhulu kanye nesiyaluyalu semakethe esiwumphumela kungabukela phansi ukuzethemba kwabathengi. Uma abantu bekhathazeka ngokuthi umnotho uzoba mubi kakhulu (izindaba zokuwohloka kwezimakethe zamasheya, njll.), bangase banciphise ukusetshenziswa kwemali ngokushesha, okungaba ukuzizuzisa ukukhula.

Ohlangothini oluhle lwabathengi, uma impi yezohwebo iholela ekuwohlokeni okukhulu komnotho, njengoba kushiwo, iFederal Reserve ingase yehlise amanani enzalo. Lokho kungase kuzuze abathengi ngesikweletu esishibhile - isibonelo, amanani emali ebolekiwe asevele ehlile ngenxa yokwesaba ukwehla komnotho. Labo abasemakethe yokubolekwa kwendlu noma imoto bangase bathole amanani angcono kancane kunangaphambili. Nokho, isikweletu esilula ngeke sanelise ngokugcwele amanani entengo aphezulu ezimpahla – enye iyizindleko zokuboleka, enye iyizindleko zokusebenzisa.

Amanethi okuphepha kanye Nempendulo Yenqubomgomo: Singabona ezinye izindlela zokunciphisa ezivela kuhulumeni zokuvikela abathengi nabasebenzi. Kukhulunywa ngesaphulelo sentela noma imihlomulo eyandisiwe yokungasebenzi uma isimo siba sibi. Kumanani entengo edlule, uhulumeni unikeze abalimi usizo; kulo mzuliswano, singabona usizo olubanzi, nakuba lokho kuwukuqagela. Ngokwezombangazwe, kuzoba nengcindezi yokusiza izifunda ezilinyazwa izintela (isibonelo, mhlawumbe isikhwama sombuso sokuxhasa ukuthengwa kwempahla okubalulekile okufana nemishini yezokwelapha ukuze kugcinwe izindleko zokunakekelwa kwezempilo ziphansi, noma usizo oluhlosiwe lwemindeni ehola kancane edonsa kanzima ngokukhuphuka kwamanani).

Ngo-2027, ithemba (ngokombono wabaphathi) liwukuthi abathengi bazozuza emnothweni wasekhaya oqinile onemisebenzi eminingi kanye namaholo akhuphukayo, okunciphisa amanani entengo aphezulu. Nokho, osomnotho abaningi bayangabaza ukuthi umphumela uzobonakala esikhathini esifushane kangaka. Ngokunokwenzeka, abathengi bazojwayela ngokuthola amaphethini amasha okusetshenziswa ajwayelekile - mhlawumbe ngaphezulu "ukuthenga i-American" uma abakhiqizi basekhaya bekhuphuka, kodwa ngokuvamile ngamanani amanani aphezulu. Uma amanani entengo ehlala njalo, ukuncintisana kwasekhaya kungase kugcine kwenyukile (izinkampani eziningi zase-US ezenza imikhiqizo = amathuba okuncintisana amanani), kodwa ukwakha lowo mthamo kuthatha isikhathi, futhi mancane amathuba okuthi kuthathelwe indawo ngokugcwele impahla elahlekile ebiza kancane phakathi neminyaka emibili.

Kafushane, abathengi baseMelika babhekene nesikhathi sokulungiswa okumakwe ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye namandla okuthenga ancishisiwe , kuyilapho imakethe yezabasebenzi ibhekene ne-churning - eminye imisebenzi ibuyela ezindaweni ezivikelekile, kodwa imisebenzi eminingi esengozini emikhakheni edalulwe kwezohwebo. Uma impi yezohwebo ifaka umnotho ekuwohlokeni komnotho, ukulahleka kwemisebenzi kuzosakazeka kabanzi, kuphinde kushaye imali yabathengi. Abenzi bezinqubomgomo kuzodingeka balinganise ukuhwebelana kwezepolitiki: izinzuzo ezihloselwe amanani entengo kubasebenzi abathile uma kuqhathaniswa nobuhlungu obuningi kubathengi nabanye abasebenzi. Isigaba esilandelayo sizocubungula imithelela ehlobene yokutshalwa kwezimali kanye nezimakethe zezimali, nazo ezibuyisela emisebenzini kanye nenhlalakahle yabathengi.

Imithelela Yokutshalwa Kwezimali Kwesikhathi Esifushane Nesikhathi Eside

Ukushaqeka kwentela sekuvele kuhlasele izimakethe zezimali futhi kuzoba nomthelela ezinqumweni zokutshala izimali esikhathini esifushane nangesikhathi eside.

Ukusabela Kwemakethe Yezezimali Kwesikhathi Esifushane: Abatshalizimali baphendule ngokushesha ezindabeni zentela ngempendulo yakudala "yokuyeka ubungozi". Izimakethe zamasheya e-US kanye nomhlaba wonke ziye zawa njengoba ukwesaba kwempi yohwebo kwanda. Ngosuku olungemva kokumenyezelwa kwempindiselo yaseChina, ikusasa leDow Jones Industrial Average lehla ngaphezu kwamaphuzu ayinkulungwane, kwathi ngasekupheleni kwemakethe ngalolo suku, abakwaDow kanye ne-S&P 500 baqopha ukwehla kwabo okubi kakhulu eminyakeni. Amasheya e-Tech, athembele kumaketanga okunikezwayo emhlabeni jikelele kanye nezimakethe zaseShayina, athinteke kakhulu - i-NASDAQ yehle nakakhulu ngokwemibandela yamaphesenti. Amasheya ezinkampani ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe (isb., i-Apple, i-Boeing, i-Caterpillar) angena ekukhathazekeni ngezindleko eziphakeme kanye nokulahleka kokuthengisa. Ngaleso sikhathi, imikhakha ebonwa “njengephephile” noma i-tariff-proof (izinsiza, amafemu esevisi agxile ekhaya) ibambe kangcono. Izinkomba ze-Volatility zikhuphuke kakhulu , okubonisa ukungaqiniseki.

Abatshalizimali baphinde bathutheleka ekuphepheni kwamabhondi kahulumeni, behlisa isivuno (njengoba kushiwo, isivuno seminyaka engu-10 sikaMgcinimafa siwile, siguqula ingxenye yejika lesivuno - ngokuvamile uphawu lokwehla komnotho). Izintengo zegolide nazo zenyuka, olunye uphawu lokubalekela endaweni ephephile. Ezimakethe zemali, idola laseMelika liqale laqina ngokumelene nezimali ezimakethe ezisafufusa (njengoba abatshalizimali bomhlaba wonke befuna ukuphepha kwezimpahla zamadola), kodwa okuthakazelisayo, laba buthaka uma liqhathaniswa ne-yen yaseJapane ne-Swiss franc (izindawo eziphephile zendabuko). I-yuan yaseShayina yehle uma iqhathaniswa nedola, engase isuse umthelela othile wentela (i-yuan eshibhile yenza ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe kushibhe), nakuba iziphathimandla zaseShayina zikwazile ukwehla ukuze zigweme ukuntengantenga kwezimali.

Esikhathini esifushane (izinyanga ezizayo ze-6-12) , singalindela ukuthi izimakethe zezimali zihlale ziguquguquka, zizwela ekuthuthukisweni okusha ngakunye empini yezohwebo. Izimakethe zizophendula enkulumweni yezingxoxo noma ukuziphindiselela okwengeziwe ngendlela yama-seesaw. Uma kunezimpawu zokuyekethisa, amasheya angase abuyele emuva; uma ukukhuphuka kuqhubeka (isb, uma i-US## Imithelela Yokutshalwa Kwezimali Kwesikhathi Esifushane Nesikhathi Eside
Izinxushunxushu Zemakethe Yesikhathi Esifushane: Ukuwa ngokushesha kwesimemezelo sentela kuye kwakhuphula ukuntengantenga kwezimakethe zezimali. Abatshalizimali, besaba impi egcwele yohwebo kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikelele, baye bangena esimeni sokuzivikela. I-US stock indices yawa yi-Dow News for Jones News. Amaphuzu angu-1,100 ngo-April 4 ngenxa yokuziphindiselela kwe-China - futhi izimakethe ze-equity emhlabeni wonke zalandela okufanayo: Izinkampani ezinkulu zezimboni, amafemu ezobuchwepheshe, kanye nezinkampani ezithembele ekufakweni kwamanye amazwe noma ukuthengiswa kwamaShayina kwabona amanani amasheya e-Safe-haven, ngokuphambene, athola intengo ephezulu ye-US Treasury izinga likhombisa ukukhathazeka ngokuthi imali etholwa yizinkampani izohlupheka ngaphansi kwentela nokuthi ukukhula komhlaba wonke kuzoba buthaka, okubuye kuphakamisa ubungozi bokuwohloka komnotho Ngempela, ikusasa lamasheya e-US kanye nezimakethe zomhlaba bezilokhu zihambisana nentela ngayinye entsha noma isihloko sokuziphindiselela, okubonisa ukuthi imizwa yabatshalizimali ihlobene kakhulu nentuthuko yempi.

Abahlaziyi bezezimali baphawula ukuthi ukuzethemba kwebhizinisi kuyancipha . Izintela zengeza ukungaqiniseki kanye nobungozi ekuhleleni kwebhizinisi, okwenza amafemu amaningi acabange kabusha noma ahlehlise ukusetshenziswa kwezimali. Ngokuhamba kancane, lokhu kusho ukutshalwa kwezimali okuncane ezimbonini ezintsha, amathuluzi, noma ukunwetshwa - ukudonsa ekukhuleni. Isibonelo, inhlolovo eyenziwe yiBusiness Roundtable ngo-Ephreli 2025 yathola ukwehla okukhulu ekubukeni kwezomnotho kwe-CEO, lapho ama-CEO amaningi ecaphuna inqubomgomo yezohwebo njengesizathu sokuhlehlisa ukutshalwa kwezimali. Ngokufanayo, izinkomba zemizwelo yamabhizinisi amancane zinciphile, njengoba abangenisa impahla kwamanye amazwe abancane/abathekelisa bakhathazeke ngokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo kanye nokukhuphuka kwezindleko.

Amathrendi Okutshalwa Kwezimali Zesikhathi Eside: Eminyakeni emibili ezayo, uma amanani entengo ehlala ekhona, singabona ukwabiwa kabusha okubalulekile kokutshalwa kwezimali emikhakheni nasezifundeni:

• I-Domestic Capital Expenditure: Ezinye izimboni zizokhuphula utshalomali lwasekhaya ukuze zithole imali ekhokhwayo yokuvikela. Isibonelo, abakhiqizi bezimoto bakwamanye amazwe bangase batshale izimali ezimbonini zokuhlanganisa zase-US ukuze bagweme intela yezimoto engu-25% (sekuvele kunemibiko yezinkampani zezimoto zase-Europe nase-Asia ezisheshisa izinhlelo zokwakha izimoto eziningi eNyakatho Melika). Ngokunjalo, amafemu ase-US emikhakheni efana nensimbi, i-aluminium, noma izinto zikagesi angase atshale imali ekuvuleni kabusha noma ekwandiseni izindawo, ukubheja ukuthi amanani entengo azogcina umncintiswano ungekho. I-White House iphakamisa lokhu njengokunqoba - ukuqondisa kabusha ukutshalwa kwezimali e-US - futhi ngempela kuzoba nokukhuphuka okuhlosiwe ekusetshenzisweni kwemali enkulu ezimbonini ezivikelekile. Imboni yensimbi, ngokwesibonelo, isimemezele ~$1 bhiliyoni ekutshalweni kwezimali okuhleliwe kuzo zonke izigayo eziningana, icaphuna isimo sentela esivumayo.

• Ukulungiswa Kabusha Kwe-Global Supply Chain: Ngokuphambene, izinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe zingase zitshale imali ekulungiseni kabusha amaketanga okunikezela ngaphandle kwe-China noma amanye amazwe anentela ephezulu. Lokhu kungase kuzuze izimakethe ezithile ezisafufusa noma abalingani. Isibonelo, izinkampani zingatshala ekukhiqizeni e-India noma e-Indonesia (ebhekene nentela yase-US ephansi kune-China) noma e-Mexico/Canada (ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuhweba kwamahhala kwe-USMCA ngaphakathi kweNyakatho Melika). Amanye amazwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia angajeziswanga ngokuqondile angabona izimboni ezintsha njengoba amafemu efuna ama-workarounds entela. Kodwa-ke, njengoba kuphawuliwe, ububanzi bentela yase-US bukhawulela izinketho - ayikho indawo yokukhokha ephansi esobala ngaphandle kwangaphakathi kweNyakatho Melika. Lokhu kungaqiniseki kungase kuvimbele ukutshalwa kwezimali okuqondile kwamanye amazwe (i-FDI) kukonke: kungani kwakhiwe ifekthri phesheya uma inqubomgomo yesikhathi esizayo yase-US ingase ikhokhise lelo zwe ngokulandelayo? I-Peterson Institute ixwayisa ngokuthi amanani entengo aphezulu kangaka azokwenqabela ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezomnotho ezisathuthuka, okungase "kulimaze ngokungenakuguquleka" amathemba azo okukhula futhi anciphise amathuba kubatshalizimali bomhlaba. Ngamanye amazwi, intela ethatha isikhathi eside ingaholela ekwehleni okuqhubekayo ekutshalweni kwezimali okuwela imingcele, ukubuyisela emuva amashumi eminyaka omhlaba.

• I-Corporate Strategy kanye ne-M&A: Izinkampani zingase ziphendule ngokuhlanganiswa noma ukutholwa ukuze kufakwe ngaphakathi amaketanga okunikezela futhi kunciphise ukuchayeka kwentela. Ngokwesibonelo, umkhiqizi wase-US angase athole umhlinzeki wasekhaya esikhundleni sokungenisa izingxenye, noma inkampani yangaphandle ingase ithole inkampani yase-US ezokhiqiza ngemva kodonga lwentela. Sibone igagasi lokutholwa “kwe-tariff arbitrage” , lapho amafemu ahlela kabusha ubunikazi ukuze asebenzise noma yikuphi ukukhululwa enteleni (nakuba imithetho inganciphisa umnyakazo osobala). Ukwengeza, izimboni ezibhekene nengcindezi ye-margin zingase zihlangane - abadlali ababuthaka bangathengwa noma banciphe. Umkhakha wezolimo, isibonelo, ungabona ukuhlanganiswa uma amapulazi amancane engakwazi ukusinda ekulahlekelweni kokuthekelisa, okungase kuholele abatshalizimali bebhizinisi lezolimo ukuthi bathenge izimpahla ezicindezelekile. Sekukonke, ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzovuna amabhizinisi angakwazi ukujwayela noma ukuxhaphaza indawo entsha yokuhweba, kanti izinkampani ezingakwazi ukulungisa zingase zibe nzima ukuheha imali.

• Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Komphakathi Nenqubomgomo: Ngasohlangothini lukahulumeni, kungase kube namashifu ezintweni ezibalulekile ekutshalweni kwezimali komphakathi. Uhulumeni wase-US angase afake izimali ezengeziwe kungqalasizinda noma ekusekelweni kwezimboni ukuze kuqiniswe amandla asekhaya (ngokwesibonelo, ukwandisa uxhaso lwezitshalo ezikhiqiza ama-semiconductor noma izimayini ezibalulekile ukuze kuncishiswe ukuthembela kwamanye amazwe). Uma umnotho untengantenga, asikwazi futhi ukubekela eceleni izinyathelo zokuvuselela ezezimali (eziwuhlobo lokutshalwa kwezimali emnothweni). Ngokombono wabatshalizimali, lokhu kungase kuvule amathuba emikhakheni exhumene nezinkontileka zikahulumeni noma ukusetshenziswa kwemali yengqalasizinda, okuvala kancane ukuqaphela kwemboni ezimele.

Kubatshalizimali bezezimali (isikhungo kanye nezitolo), indawo ezungezile phakathi kuka-2025–2027 ingase ibonise ubungozi obuphezulu nokuzungezisa umkhakha ngokucophelela . Abaningi sebevele bethula kabusha amaphothifoliyo belindele ukukhula kancane: ukukhetha amasheya okuzivikela (ukunakekelwa kwezempilo, izinsiza), izinkampani ezinemali engenayo yasekhaya ngokuyinhloko, noma lezo ezingadlulisela izindleko kalula. Amafemu ashayelwa ukuthekelisa kanye nancike kwamanye amazwe abona ukwehliswa kwemali. Ukwengeza, abatshalizimali baqapha umnyakazo wemali - uma ukungezwani kwezohwebo kuqhubeka, abanye balindele ukuthi idola laseMelika ligcine lintekenteke (njengoba ukusilela kwezohwebo ekuqaleni kungase kwande futhi njengoba amanye amazwe ephindisela, enciphisa isidingo samadola), okungase kube nomthelela embuyekezweni yokutshalwa kwezimali ezigabeni ezihlukahlukene zempahla.

Kafushane, isimo sokutshala izimali sesikhathi eside singesinye sokungaqiniseki nokuzivumelanisa nezimo . Okunye ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzoshintsha ukuze kuzuze ukwakheka kwentela (ukuqinisa ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya ezindaweni ezithile), kodwa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwebhizinisi jikelele kusengcupheni yokuba ngaphansi kunalokho obekungaba khona ohlelweni oluzinzile lohwebo. Impi yohwebo isebenza njengentela emalini ngokukhuphula izindleko zokwenza ibhizinisi emazweni omhlaba kanye nokwandisa ukungaqiniseki. Ngo-2027, umphumela okhulayo ungase ube iminyaka embalwa yokungatshalwa kwezimali kumaphrojekthi akhiqiza ngenye indlela - izindleko zamathuba ezingase zibonakale ekukhuleni kokukhiqiza kancane. Abatshalizimali, bona, bazoqhubeka nokufuna ukucaciseleka: isivumelwano esiqinile sokuhweba noma isivumelwano singase sivuse umbuthano wokusiza kanye nokuqala kabusha kokutshalwa kwezimali, kuyilapho ukungqubuzana kwezohwebo okugxilile kuzogcina ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kwehle futhi izimakethe zintengantenga.

Ukubukeka Kwenqubomgomo kanye Nokufana Komlando

Izintela zikaTrump zango-Ephreli 2025 zimele isiphetho senqubomgomo yokuhweba yase-US eyaqala ngesikhathi sakhe sokuqala. Babheka emuva ezikhathini zangaphambili zentela ephezulu, bethola ukwesekwa kokubili kwabashisekeli bobuzwe bezomnotho kanye nokugxekwa okubukhali okuvela kubakhulumeli bohwebo lwamahhala. Ngokomlando, isikhathi sokugcina i-US ibeka izintela lokhu kujezisa kabanzi kwakuyi- Smoot-Hawley Tariff yango-1930 , eyanyusa intela ezinkulungwaneni zezinto ezithengwayo. Khona-ke, njengamanje, inhloso kwakuwukuvikela izimboni zasekhaya, kodwa umphumela waba izintela zokuziphindiselela emhlabeni wonke ezanciphisa ukuhweba komhlaba wonke futhi kwabhebhethekisa Ukudangala. Abahlaziyi bacele kaningi i-Smoot-Hawley njengesixwayiso esifanayo: njengoba amanani entengo ase-US manje asondela kumazinga awo-1930s, ingozi yokuphinda lowo mlando iyanda .

Nokho, kukhona nokufana kwamuva nje komlando. Ngawo-1980s, i-US yasebenzisa izindlela zokuhweba ezinolaka (izintengo, izabelo zokungenisa, nemikhawulo yokuzithandela yokuthumela ngaphandle) ukuze ibhekane nokungalingani kwezohwebo ne-Japan kanye nabanye - isibonelo, amanani ezithuthuthu zase-Japan ukuze konge i-Harley-Davidson, noma izabelo ezimotweni zase-Japan. Lezo zenzo zibe nempumelelo exubile futhi ekugcineni zaqedwa ngezingxoxo (njenge-Plaza Accord on currencies, noma izivumelwano ze-semiconductor). Isu likaTrump ngo-2025 lishanela kakhulu, kepha umbono oyisisekelo uyafana nesimo sohwebo se-"America First" sama-1980s. Izinqubomgomo zohwebo eziqhubekayo zokuphatha kukaTrump futhi zakhela empini yezohwebo elinganiselwe ka-2018-2019, lapho amanani entengo ensimbi, i-aluminium, kanye nama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-360 wezimpahla zaseChina zafakwa. Ngaleso sikhathi, ukungqubuzana kwaholela esivumelwaneni esinqunyiwe - isivumelwano sikaJanuwari 2020 neSigaba Sokuqala neChina, lapho iChina yavuma ukuthenga ezinye izimpahla zase-US (umgomo ephuthelwe kakhulu) ukuze ingazikhokhi ezinye izintela. Izingqapheli eziningi ziphawula ukuthi isivumelwano seSigaba Sokuqala asizange sizixazulule izinkinga eziwumgogodla ezifana nezibonelelo zaseShayina noma izinqubo “ezingezona ezomakethe”. Izintela ezintsha zango-2025 zibonisa inkolelo ku-White House yokuthi indlela eqine kakhulu kuphela (ukukhokha yonke into, hhayi nje ezinye izimpahla) ezophoqa izinguquko zesakhiwo. Ngalowo mqondo, lokhu kungabonakala njengokuthi “I-Trade War 2.0” - ukwanda ngemva kokuba izinqubomgomo zangaphambili zithathwe njengezinganele .

Ngokombono wenqubomgomo, lezi zindleko ziphinde zibonise ukwehlukana kwesivumelwano sohwebo olukhululekile lwezizwe ngezizwe olwabusa kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1990 kuya kowezi-2016. Ngisho nangemva kokuba uTrump eshiye isikhundla ngo-2021, owangena esikhundleni sakhe wahlehlisa kancane amanani entengo; manje ngo-2025 uTrump usephindeke kabili phansi, ephakamisa ukushintshwa kwesikhathi eside kunqubomgomo yezohwebo yase-US ekungabazeni ukuhweba kwamahhala. Ukuthi lokhu kuwuphawu lwenguquko engunaphakade noma ukuphambana kwesikhashana kuzoncika emiphumeleni yezombangazwe (ukhetho oluzayo lungaletha amafilosofi ahlukene). Kodwa esikhathini esiseduze, i-US iye yayibeka eceleni ngempumelelo i-WTO (ngokwenza uhlangothi olulodwa) futhi yabeka eqhulwini amandla aguquguqukayo ezinhlangothi zombili. Amazwe emhlabeni jikelele azivumelanisa naleli qiniso elisha, njengoba kuxoxwe ngakho esigabeni se-geopolitical.

Isifundo esisodwa esingokomlando ukuthi izimpi zohwebo kulula ukuziqala kunokuyeka. Uma amanani entengo kanye nezindleko eziphikisanayo sezinqwabelene, amaqembu anentshisekelo ohlangothini ngalunye azijwayela futhi avame ukunxenxa ukuze azigcine (ezinye izimboni zase-US zizojabulela ukuvikeleka futhi zimelane nokubuyela emqhudelwaneni wamahhala, kuyilapho abakhiqizi bangaphandle bethola ezinye izimakethe futhi bangase bangajahi ukubuya). Kodwa-ke, esinye isifundo ukuthi ubuhlungu obukhulu bezomnotho obuvela ezimpini zohwebo bungagcina bubuyisele abaholi etafuleni lokuxoxisana. Isibonelo, ngemva kweminyaka emibili yezinqubomgomo ezifana ne-Smoot-Hawley, uMongameli uFranklin D. Roosevelt wahoxisa inkambo ngezivumelwano zohwebo ezifanayo ngo-1934. Kungenzeka ukuthi uma amanani entengo edala umonakalo (isb. ukwehla okukhulu komnotho noma inkinga yezezimali), ngo-2026-2027 i-US ingase ifune izivumelwano zohwebo ezishintshayo, noma ngokukhetha okusha. Sekuvele kukhona okungaphansi kwepolitiki: UKhongolose ngokobuchwepheshe unamandla okubuyekeza noma okunciphisa amanani entengo, futhi nakuba okwamanje iqembu likaMongameli limeseka kakhulu, ukucindezeleka kwezomnotho okuthatha isikhathi eside kungase kushintshe lokho kubala.

Izinkulumo-mpikiswano Eziqhubekayo Zenqubomgomo: Izintela nazo zibophela ezingxoxweni mayelana nokuphepha kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla (okwenziwa kuphuthuma ubhubhane kanye nezimbangi zezwe). Ngisho nabamelene nendlela kaTrump bayavuma ukuthi ukwehlukana okuthile kude neChina noma ukuqinisa amandla asekhaya kuwubuhlakani. Ngakho-ke, sibona ukushayisana phakathi kwenqubomgomo yezohwebo kanye nenqubomgomo yezimboni - amanani ahambisana nemizamo yokugqugquzela ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya kwama-semiconductors, amabhethri e-EV, amakhemisi, njll. Ngokuphathelene nalokho, amanani entengo ayithuluzi elilodwa kuqhinga elikhudlwana "lokukhipha i-coupling" kusuka ezitheni kanye nokukhuthaza amaketanga okuhlinzeka ahlangene . Lokhu kuhambisana nomnyakazo wamanye amazwe nawo (i-Europe ixoxa “ngokuzimela kwamasu,” ukuphusha kwe-India ukuzethemba, njll.). Ngakho-ke, ngenkathi esebenza ngokwedlulele, amanani entengo kaTrump ahambisana nokucabanga kabusha komhlaba wonke ngokuncika ngokweqile kubalingani bokuhweba abangabodwa. Ngokomlando, lokhu kukhumbuza ama-mercantilist noma amabhlogo wokuhweba wenkathi yeMpi Ebandayo, lapho ukuqondana kwendawo yezepolitiki kunqume ubudlelwano bokuhweba. Kungenzeka ukuthi singena enkathini lapho amaphethini ohwebo abonisa imifelandawonye yezepolitiki kakhulu kunokunengqondo yemakethe.

Sengiphetha, amanani entengo ka-April 2025 aphawula iphuzu elibalulekile lokushintsha inqubomgomo yezohwebo - ukubuyisela emuva ekuvikelekeni okungabonakali ezizukulwaneni ngezizukulwane. Imithelela elindelekile ngo-2025–2027, njengoba ihlaziywe ngenhla, mibi kabanzi ekukhuleni komhlaba wonke kanye nokuzinza kwezimakethe, kunezinzuzo ezithile ezincane ezimbonini ezithile zasekhaya. Isimo sihlala singashintshile: okuningi kuzoncika ekutheni ezinye izizwe zisabela kanjani (ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo noma ukuxoxisana) nokuthi umnotho wase-US ubonakala uqine kangakanani ngaphansi kwalezi zinkinga. Ngokuhlola izethulo zomlando kanye nokuthambekela kwamanje, umuntu uthola isizathu sokuqapha: izimpi zohwebo ngokomlando bezilokhu ziyiziphakamiso ezilahlekile , futhi ukuma okude kungashiya zonke izinhlangothi zibe zimbi kakhulu ngokomnotho. Inselele kubenzi benqubomgomo kuzoba ukuthola isiphetho - isivumelwano okuxoxiswene ngaso noma ukulungiswa kwenqubomgomo - esibhekana nezindaba zokuhweba ezisemthethweni ngaphandle kokudala umonakalo ongapheli kuhlelo lomnotho wamazwe ngamazwe. Kuze kube yileso sikhathi, amabhizinisi, abathengi, kanye nohulumeni emhlabeni wonke bazobe bezulazula enkathini entsha yentela ephezulu kanye nokungaqiniseki okukhulayo, ngethemba lokuthi iminyaka embalwa ezayo izoletha ukucaca kanye nokuzinza ebudlelwaneni bezohwebo bomhlaba.

Isiphetho

Izintela ezamenyezelwa nguMongameli uTrump ngo-Ephreli 3, 2025 zenza isikhathi sokudlondlobala ebudlelwaneni bezohwebo baseMelika, kwethula omunye wemibuso evikela kakhulu emlandweni wanamuhla. Lokhu kuhlaziya kuhlole imiphumela enezinhlangothi eziningi elindelekile ngo-2027:

• Isifinyezo: Intengo engu-10% yonkana kanye nemisebenzi eqondiswe kakhulu yezwe elithile (34% e-China, 20% e-EU, njll.) manje ithinta cishe konke ukungenisa kwe-US, ngaphandle kokukhululwa okulinganiselwe. Lezi zinyathelo, ezigunyazwe abaphathi njengesidingo sohwebo “olunobulungiswa” nolwesibili, zikhuphule isimo se-quo sohwebo lomhlaba wonke.

• Imithelela Yezomnotho Omkhulu: Ukuvumelana ukuthi lezi zindleko zizosebenza njengokudonsela ukukhula futhi zikhuphule ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US nasemhlabeni jikelele. Kakade, ochwepheshe baxwayisa ngokuthi amazinga entela asondela kulawo “ajulise Ukuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho,” futhi umnotho omningi ungase uwele ekuwohlokeni komnotho uma amanani entengo eqhubeka. Abathengi base-US babhekene nezintengo eziphakeme ezimpahleni zansuku zonke, ezibukela phansi amandla okuthenga nokwenza kube nzima umsebenzi we-Federal Reserve wokuphatha ukwehla kwamandla emali.

• Imithelela Yemboni: Ukukhiqiza kwendabuko kanye neminye imikhakha yezinsiza ingase ijabulele ukuvikeleka kwesikhashana futhi ingeze imisebenzi noma inyuse umkhiqizo ngemuva kodonga lwentela. Kodwa-ke, izimboni ezithembele ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka emhlabeni wonke (izimoto, ubuchwepheshe, ezolimo) zibhekene nokugudluzwa, izindleko zokufakwayo eziphezulu, kanye nokulahlekelwa izimakethe zokuthumela ngaphandle. Abalimi, ikakhulukazi, bahlaselwa yizintela eziphindiselayo ezivala izimakethe ezibalulekile njenge-China, okuholela emalini eningi kanye nemali engenayo ephansi. Izinkampani zobuchwepheshe zibhekene nezingqinamba zokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kanye nokususwa kwamasu okuphikisa (njengokulawula ukuthekelisa komhlaba okungavamile kwe-China) okungase kuphazamise ukukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu. Umkhakha wamandla kagesi uye wavikelwa ngokwengxenye ngokukhululeka, kodwa abathumeli bamandla kagesi base-US bahlupheka ngenxa yezindleko zangaphandle kanye nokwehla okubanzi komnotho.

• Ama-Supply Chains nama-Trade Patterns: Amanethiwekhi okuphakela umhlaba wonke ayahlelwa kabusha. Amafemu afuna izindlela zokweqa amanani entengo ngokushintshanisa ukuthola nokukhiqiza, nakuba izinketho zilinganiselwe uma kubhekwa izindlela zase-US. Umphumela ongase ube khona uwukuqhubekela phambili kumaketanga okunikezela ngezifunda kanye nangaphakathi ngaphakathi, okudela ukusebenza kahle kwezokuphepha. Ukukhula kwezohwebo kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuthi kuntengantenge noma kwehle, kuhlukaniseke kube yizinhlangano zohwebo. Lezi zindleko zingasheshisa ukuhlukaniswa phakathi kwamanethiwekhi ase-US kanye ne-China-centric, kanye nokucindezela amanye amazwe ukuthi ajulise ubuhlobo phakathi kwawo ngaphandle kokuvuleka kwezimakethe zase-US.

• Ukusabela Kwamazwe Ngamazwe: Ozakwethu bohwebo base-US bazigxekile emhlabeni wonke amanani entengo futhi baziphindiselela ngamandla. I-China yafanisa amanani entengo futhi yaqhubekela phambili ngemikhawulo yokuthumela ngaphandle kanye necala le-WTO. Izivumelwano ezifana ne-Canada kanye ne-EU zibeke ezazo izintela ezimpahleni zase-US futhi zihlola izindlela zokusebenzelana nezomthetho zokuphendula. Umphumela uba umjikelezo okhulayo wokuvikela obeka engcupheni yokulimaza ubudlelwano obubanzi bezwe. Uhlelo lokuhweba olusekelwe emithethweni ngaphansi kwe-WTO lubhekene novivinyo olunzima kakhulu, futhi ubuholi bomhlaba jikelele kwezohwebo buyashintshashintsha.

• Abasebenzi Nabathengi: Nakuba ingxenye encane yemisebenzi ezimbonini ezivikelekile ingase ibuye, eminye eminingi isengcupheni emikhakheni egxile ekuthumeleni kwamanye amazwe naleyo encike kwamanye amazwe. Abathengi ekugcineni bakhokha intengo ngezindleko eziphakeme - ngokuphumelelayo intela engase ibe nesilinganiso samakhulu amadola ngomuntu ngamunye ngonyaka. Izintela ziyahlehla, zinomthelela kakhulu emakhaya anemali ephansi kakhulu ngezimpahla eziyisisekelo ezibizayo. Uma umnotho uba nezinkontileka, imakethe yezabasebenzi ingathamba kabanzi, iqede izisebenzi zamandla ezingxoxo ezizuzwe eminyakeni yamuva nje.

• Isimo Sezulu Sotshalomali: Ngokuhamba kancane, izimakethe zezimali zisabele ngendlela engalungile, amanani entengo ehla kanye nokuntengantenga phakathi kokungaqiniseki kwezohwebo. Amabhizinisi ahlehlisa ukutshalwa kwezimali ngenxa yemithetho engacacile yomdlalo. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, okunye ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzoshintsha ukuze kuzuze amanani entengo (amaphrojekthi asekhaya) noma ukuwagwema (uchungechunge olusha lokuhlinzeka emazweni ahlukene), kodwa ukusetshenziswa kwezimali okujwayelekile kungase kube phansi ngaphansi kwesimo sempi yesikhathi eside yezohwebo kunokuba bekungaba ngenye indlela, kulinganisa ukukhula nokusungula izinto ezintsha esikhathini esizayo.

• Inqubomgomo Nomongo Womlando: Lezi zindleko zimelela ushintsho olukhulu kunqubomgomo yase-US ukusuka esivumelwaneni sohwebo lwamahhala lwamashumi eminyaka adlule, okubonisa ukuvuka kabusha kobuzwe bomnotho. Ngokomlando, iziqephu ezinjalo zentela ephezulu (isb., 1930s) ziphele kabi, futhi inkambo yamanje igcwele izingozi ezifanayo. Izintela zihlangana nezinjongo zamasu - kusukela ekubhekaneni nezinqubo zezohwebo zaseShayina kuya ekutholeni amaketanga abalulekile wokuhlinzeka ngempahla - kodwa ukufeza lezi zinhloso ngaphandle kokulimaza umnotho obanzi kuseyinselele enkulu. Iminyaka emibili ezayo izohlola ukuthi ukusetshenziswa ngesibindi kwezintela kungakwazi ngempela yini ukuveza izivumelwano okuxoxiswene ngazo (njengoba uTrump ehlosile), noma ukuthi kuzodlulela empini yokuhweba elahlekile edinga ukuhlehliswa kwenqubomgomo.

Sengiphetha, amanani entengo amenyezelwe ango-Ephreli 2025 asekulungele ukubumba kabusha isimo sezimakethe zomhlaba kanye nezaseMelika ngezindlela ezifinyelela kude. Esimeni esihle kakhulu , zingase zibangele izinguquko kuzinqubomgomo zozakwethu abahwebayo kanye nokulinganisa kabusha ubudlelwano obuthile bohwebo, nakuba ngezindleko zobuhlungu besikhashana. Esimweni esibi kakhulu , bangase baqalise umjikelezo wokuziphindiselela kanye nokuwohloka komnotho okusikhumbuza izimpi zohwebo zomlando, okushiya zonke izinhlangothi zimbi kakhulu. Iqiniso elingenzeka lizowela endaweni ethile phakathi - isikhathi sokulungiswa okubalulekile kokubili abawinile nabahluliwe. Okusobala ukuthi amabhizinisi nabathengi emhlabeni wonke bangena enkathini entsha yemingcele yokuhweba ephakeme, nayo yonke imithelela ehambisana namanani, inzuzo, nokuchuma. Njengoba isimo sithuthuka, abenzi bezinqubomgomo bazobhekana nengcindezi ekhulayo yokunciphisa imithelela engemihle, noma ngabe ngokukhululeka okuhlosiwe, ukuncishiswa kwezimali, noma ekugcineni, ngesinqumo senxusa lokungqubuzana kwezohwebo. Kuze kube yilapho kuvela lesi sinqumo, umnotho womhlaba kumele ubheke umgwaqo onesiyaluyalu, uzulazule enkingeni yentela kaMongameli uTrump ka-2025.

Imithombo: Ukuhlaziywa okungenhla kusekelwe olwazini nasezibikezelweni ezivela emithonjeni ehlukahlukene yakamuva, okuhlanganisa imibiko yezindaba, ukuphawula kwezomnotho kochwepheshe, nezitatimende ezisemthethweni. Izinkomba ezibalulekile zifaka imibiko ye-Associated Press mayelana nesimemezelo sentela nezimpendulo zamazwe ngamazwe, ishidi lamaqiniso le-White House uqobo ngenqubomgomo, ukuhlaziya okucatshangwayo kwemithelela yayo ebanzi, kanye nedatha yokuqala/izingcaphuno ezivela kubaholi bezimboni nosomnotho abahlola umthelela. Le mithombo ngokuhlangene ihlinzeka ngesisekelo esiyiqiniso sokuhlola imiphumela elindelwe yokuhlolwa kwentela ka-2025–2027.

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